Category: Investment Grade Weekly

Credit spreads were modestly tighter on the week through Thursday.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 78 on Thursday April 23^rd after closing the week prior at 79.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 4.25% and it closed at 4.32% on Thursday evening. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.42% and the yield to maturity for the index was 5.06%.

Points of Interest

The highlight of the week occurred on Tuesday with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.  Warsh repeatedly stated that he would embrace the role in an independent manner and he reaffirmed his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet.  The Fed’s use of forward guidance was a topic of discussion; Warsh has been critical of the Fed’s signaling and its focus on PCE as its preferred inflation gauge.  He argues that Fed forecasts can lead to policy errors instead of allowing decisions to be made based on real-time debate in response to changing economic conditions.  On Friday, the DOJ announced that it was dropping the criminal probe of current Fed Chair Powell which may clear the way for Warsh’s confirmation.  Next week is Jerome Powell’s last scheduled meeting as Federal Reserve Chair though he has said he will remain on as chair pro tempore if his successor is not confirmed.  Fed Funds Futures are pricing almost no chance of a rate cut/hike at next week’s meeting.

It was another light week for economic data but things ramp up next week. Thursday in particular is a busy one with personal income/spending, PCE and GDP releases.  Next week is also the height of earnings season in the credit markets with 259 investment grade rated companies reporting.  All eyes will be on the hyperscalers as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft will all release earnings on Wednesday afternoon.

Primary Market

Investment grade companies priced $19.3bln of new debt this week, in line with the low end of dealer estimates.  Syndicate desks are looking for a similar figure next week.  Volume should start to pick up in the first full week of May as many companies will have reported earnings by that time.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $751bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended April 22^nd, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.53bln.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$39.7bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads were slightly tighter on the week through Thursday and Friday morning is seeing some positive price action as well.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 79 on Thursday April 16^th after closing the week prior at 80.  For context, the Index OAS is now several basis points better than where it was just prior to the beginning of the Iran conflict.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 4.32% and it closed at 4.31% on Thursday evening. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.34% and the yield to maturity for the index was 5.04%.

Points of Interest

The big theme of the week was the return of relative calm across risk assets.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has come off sharply from recent highs.  VIX readings above 30 indicate high volatility while readings under 20 show periods of stability.

With no formal deal in place with Iran we remain somewhat skeptical about the speed with which equity markets have rebounded.  They should certainly be better relative to the lows but the situation remains tenuous at best and higher oil prices will weigh heavily on the consumer and certain sectors of the economy.

It was a light week for economic data with nothing earth shattering from a market movement perspective.  Existing home sales remained unsurprisingly sluggish amid an environment of higher mortgage rates for the past month.  Producer price inflation surprised slightly to the downside but the release had little market impact.  Next week brings a bit more excitement with additional housing data, retail sales, PMI and consumer sentiment data.  Looking further ahead, the next FOMC decision occurs on April 29^th.  As of Friday morning, Fed Funds Futures were pricing a >99% chance of no change in the policy rate at the upcoming meeting.

Primary Market

Subdued interest rate volatility brought issuers off the sidelines this week.  According to data compiled by Bloomberg, 21 companies priced over $57bln of new debt.  The largest banks in the US all posted earnings this week which allowed them to exit blackout periods with a green light to raise capital –banks alone accounted for $36.5bln of this week’s volume.[i]  Next week is expected to have a slower cadence, with syndicate desks estimating $20-$25bln of new supply as corporate issuers continue to work through a busy period for earnings.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $731bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended April 15^th, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$0.849bln. This comes after two consecutive weeks of outflows, which were the first incidents of negative flows since November 2025.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$38.2bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

i Bloomberg, April 17 2026, “US IG OPEN: Bond Sales ON Pause After Big US Banks Boost Volume”

Credit spreads were tighter on the week through Thursday but Friday’s price action is indicating that the market will finish the period unchanged.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 86 on Thursday March 26^th after closing the week prior at 87.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 4.38% and it closed at 4.41% on Thursday evening. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was -1.20% and the yield to maturity for the index was 5.26%.

Points of Interest

It was another volatile week for risk assets with plenty of headlines to parse and lots of risk reversals depending on the social media post of the day (or minute) regarding Iran.  Equities continued to bear most of the brunt and IG credit was particularly well behaved.  Investment grade credit is lower on the risk spectrum relative to most other assets and higher yields have drawn investor interest which has helped support spreads.  On the economic front, it was a light week for meaningful data.  Next week things ramp up with consumer confidence, retail sales, vehicle sales and then finally the nonfarm payroll report on Friday morning.

Primary Market

New issue volume this week was $28.95bln, in line with the $30bln estimate.  Next week is expected to be light with an estimate of just $10bln in new supply.  Bond and equity markets are closed next Friday in observance of Good Friday.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $631bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended March 24^th, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.9bln. This was the 17^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$44.1bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads were tighter this week.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 88 on Thursday March 19^th after closing the week prior at 92.  Spreads were quite volatile throughout the period but the price action was downright orderly compared to most risk assets.  Equites are poised to finish lower for the 4^th consecutive week.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 4.28% and it closed at 4.25% on Thursday evening. The benchmark rate was sharply higher on Friday and was trading at 4.37% as we went to print on Friday afternoon.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was -0.36% and the yield to maturity for the index was 5.11%.

Points of Interest

Volatility took center stage once again as the war with Iran continued to drag on.  There was extensive damage to energy infrastructure in the middle east this week.  In one particular instance, QatarEnergy’s CEO commented that Iranian attacks had knocked out 17% of Qatar’s liquified natural gas export capacity for least three to five years, threatening supplies to Europe and Asia.[i]  In domestic news, the FOMC rate decision was the highlight of the week.  As expected, the committee left its policy rate unchanged.  Chairman Powell’s presser was interpreted as somewhat hawkish by investors as he showed little conviction regarding the path forward for interest rates. The mere fact that he did not squash the possibility of increasing the policy rate led the market to drastically reprice the path forward.  At the beginning of March, investors were pricing two rate cuts in 2026 while the Fed’s dot plot was calling for one.  Today, the market is pricing zero rate cuts in 2026 while the updated dot plot released on Wednesday was still predicting a single cut.  Bottom line, with the ongoing war, constantly changing tariffs, a tired US labor market and a spike in fuel prices, the path forward is now fraught with uncertainty.  If there is one thing that capital markets do not appreciate it is uncertainty.  This means volatility is here to stay.

Primary Market

New issue volume this week came in at $36.45bln versus projections of $40bln.  All of this supply occurred on Monday and Tuesday as issuers took a pass on Wednesday due to the FOMC and Thursday due to volatility.  Syndicate desks are looking for $30bln next week.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $602bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended March 17^th, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$4.79bln. This was the 16^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$41.3bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

[i] Reuters, March 19 2026, “Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says”

Credit spreads were meaningfully wider this week through Thursday, though the tone was positive with tighter spreads on Friday morning.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 90 on Thursday March 12^th after closing the week prior at 83.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 4.14% and it closed at 4.26% on Thursday evening.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was -0.69% and the yield to maturity for the index was 5.11%.  It is worth noting that this week was the first time the corporate index yield closed above 5% since the last trading day of July 2025.

Points of Interest

It was another volatile week for risk assets as the conflict with Iran looks as though it could drag on for quite some time.  The implication for oil prices has been profound which has led to higher expectations for inflation and lower expectations for consumer spending.  There were some meaningful economic releases this week with Personal Income/Spending and Core PCE.  These were mostly in line with expectations but the problem is that this data was for the month of January and backward looking in nature.  It will be months before we know the full extent of the impact that higher energy prices will have on the economy.  Next Wednesday the FOMC will convene and deliver a decision on the policy rate.  Interest rate futures are pricing an extremely high probability that the Fed maintains the status quo. In fact, futures are not even pricing in a one full 25bp cut for the entirety of 2026.  Expectations can evolve rapidly but we believe that the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future.

Primary Market

New issue supply was the big story of the week in the credit markets as issuers priced $115bln of new debt versus the estimate of $60bln.  It was the second busiest week on record, just trailing the $117bln that was priced in 2020.  Amazon, Honeywell and Salesforce led the way with three jumbo deals that accounted for $78bln of the total.  Amazon’s $37bln deal on Tuesday was the 4^th largest of all time and helped reach a new daily record for the US primary market of $65.75bln.  Remarkably, Amazon returned to market in Europe on Wednesday pricing €14.5 billion, the largest bond deal ever for that currency.  Syndicate desks are looking for around $40bln of issuance next week.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $565bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended March 10^th, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$3.28bln. This was the 15^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$36.5bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads inched tighter this week on the back of strong demand.  Investors were motivated by a flight to quality and higher all-in yields.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 81 on Thursday March 5^th after closing the week prior at 84.  Spreads are wider as we go to print on Friday morning as a result of a weak payroll report for the month of February so it is possible that the index finishes the week close to unchanged if the current trend holds.  The 10yr Treasury ended last week at 3.94% and it closed at 4.14% on Thursday evening.  Treasuries were volatile this week but generally higher across the board as investors anticipated inflationary impacts due to sharply higher oil prices as a result of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +1.36% and the yield to maturity for the index was 4.88%.

Points of Interest

Volatility took center stage this week as investors gauged the severity and potential duration of the conflict with Iran and AI-related worries continued to weigh on certain sectors of the market.  Most commodity prices are now sharply higher with WTI and Brent crude both near $90/bbl (+50% YTD).  Monday and Tuesday corporate bond volume was well above average, especially for IG credit as investors were seeking safety and yield.  The big economic data this week did not hit until Friday morning with the payroll report and retail sales for the month of February.  Payrolls were extremely underwhelming with a -92k reduction for the month relative to a survey of +55k jobs added.  Some of the payroll weakness could be related to poor weather and ongoing labor strikes but it was a weak print any way you slice it and took the shine off January’s relatively good report (+126k revised vs +65k estimate).  Retail sales on the other hand came in a bit better than expectations, especially considering the poor weather across most of the US during February.  The headline number was -0.2% vs the -0.3% survey but the control group showed modestly positive sales growth of +0.4%.

Primary Market

New issue supply hit >$50bln again this week but fell short of the $70bln estimate.  Issuers took a breather on Monday and Tuesday due to spread and rate volatility but then returned in a big way on Wednesday and Thursday.  All told it was a respectable week from a volume perspective considering the bulk of that occurred over the course of just two trading days.  Syndicate desks are looking for around $60bln of issuance next week.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $450bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended March 3^rd, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.88bln. This was the 14^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$33.2bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads moved wider this week.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 82 on Thursday February 26^th after closing the week prior at 77.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.08% and had closed at 4.0% on Thursday before breaching 4% on Friday morning.  If the current level holds, today will be the first time the 10yr has closed below 4% since the end of November.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +1.36% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.75%.

Points of Interest

There was a lot happening in the market this week as AI-related woes continued to weigh heavily on certain sectors of the equity market, with software companies leading the way lower.  The equity malaise, along with geopolitical worries surrounding Iran, sparked a flight to quality which sent Treasury yields lower.  Next week investors will receive important economic data including Employment and Retail Sales from USA and Europe.  We also get US ISM Services and a flurry of earnings reports from major retailers (COST, TGT) that will help investors gauge the pulse of the American consumer.

Primary Market

New issue supply sailed past the $50bln estimate this week as companies priced more than $63bln in the primary market.  Although spreads have moved wider they have not fully offset the move lower in Treasuries making the funding environment incrementally more attractive for would be issuers.  Next week is expected to be another big one as syndicate desks are looking for $70bln of new debt.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $399.6bln through the end of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended February 25^th, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.75bln. This was the 13^th consecutive week of inflows, although it was less volume than the past few weeks.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$31.3bln.  The pace of flows is double the number of YTD flows to this point in 2025.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads drifted wider this week and the tape is somewhat weak on Friday morning.  The AI disruption trade was in full force during the period throughout the equity markets and some portions of the leveraged loan and high yield credit markets, while IG credit remained relatively unscathed.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 77 on Thursday February 12^th after closing the week prior at 75.  Recall that the index stood at 78 at the beginning of 2026.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.21% and had closed at 4.10% on Thursday.  The 10yr is wrapped around 4.06% as we go to print on the back of Friday’s cooler than expected CPI print.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +1.08% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.77%.

Points of Interest

There were two economic releases of great interest this week.  On Wednesday the delayed non-farm payroll report for the month of January showed much better job growth than expected with 130k jobs adding during the period relative to expectations of 65k.  The unemployment rate also ticked lower for the second consecutive month down to 4.3% versus the survey of 4.4%.  However, there was some bad news as well with the release of the BLS’s revised employment numbers for the full year 2025.  The revision was over 400,000 lower taking the total number of jobs added during the prior year to just 181,000.  This is an average of just over 15k jobs added per month in 2025 which is a weak number any way you slice it.  The labor market is not yet bad but is has increasingly become a “low hire low fire” environment and it has clearly lost some steam over the past 24 months.  The good news is that wages have continued to be supportive of consumer spending.

On Friday morning the CPI report offered a positive surprise in terms of inflation.  For the month of January YoY CPI moved from +2.7% in the prior period down to +2.4% while economists were looking for +2.5%.  This sparked a small rally in Treasuries sending yields lower though part of the move in rates could be related to the malaise in the equity markets this week as it pertains to the AI pain trade.

Primary Market

The primary market was on the screws this week as $40bln in new debt priced which also happened to be the consensus estimate.  We had thought we would need a hyperscaler to print a deal in order to reach that number and this is precisely what happened as Alphabet came to market with a $20bln deal that accounted for half of the weekly calendar.  Next week syndicate desks are looking for $25bln in new supply but we would not be surprised to see this number eclipsed if Treasuries hold current levels.  Year-to-date new issue supply stood at $309bln through the end of the week.

Flows

In what has been a recurring theme, it was another robust week of inflows.  According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended February 11, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$4.32bln. This was the 11^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$25.2bln.  This is double the number of YTD flows to this point in 2025.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Credit spreads remained range bound this week with The Index just slightly wider through Thursday.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 73 on Thursday January 29^th after closing the week prior at 72.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.23% and exhibited almost no change whatsoever throughout the week before closing at 4.23% on Thursday evening.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.24% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.85%.

Points of Interest

The biggest news of the week came on Friday morning when President Donald Trump said that he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.  Warsh still needs to be confirmed by the Senate but he is widely viewed as a relatively safe pick given his past experience serving on the US Central Bank’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.  Recall that Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.[i]

The FOMC also met this week and made no changes to its policy rate, as expected.  This pause came after three consecutive meetings where the committee elected to lower rates.  10 of the 12 voting members chose to pause with only 2 dissenters that were in favor of lower rates.

This creates a tough situation for Kevin Warsh and we are not envious of the job that he has in front of him.  On one hand he has a President that has repeatedly called for a policy rate up to 3% lower than its current level (this would be the equivalent of a dozen 25bp rate cuts!). On the other hand, Warsh inherits an economy that has continued to perform and a job market that has experienced slowing growth but has still managed to maintain an unemployment rate that has shown signs of stabilization near historical lows.  With the December dot plot showing a median consensus of just two cuts by the end of 2027 it is hard to envision a scenario where Kevin Warsh will be able to deliver lower rates and appease the President.  In any case, we are hopeful that the Fed continues its time-honored tradition of independence and allows the data to guide its decision-making process.

There is a smattering of economic data next week but the major highlights are JOLTS job data on Wednesday followed by the Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday morning.

Primary Market

The primary market picked up this week as borrowers priced $36.9bln of new debt topping the high end of estimates.  This helped push the monthly total for January to $208bln, making it the 5^th busiest month of all-time.  Syndicate desks are looking for another busy week to start the month of February with the average supply estimate coming in at around $40bln.

Flows

Investment grade bond inflows hit a five-year high in the latest week.  According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended January 28, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$5.4bln, the most since the week ended February 3^rd, 2021. This was the 9^th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$14.46bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

[1] Bloomberg, January 30 2026, “Trump Picks a Reinvented Warsh to Lead the Federal Reserve”

Credit spreads moved tighter this week.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 71 on Thursday January 22^nd after closing the week prior at 74.  The Index was 7 bps tighter YTD and stood at its tightest level since 1998 amid a strong technical backdrop for credit.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.22% before moving to 4.25% on Thursday evening.  The benchmark rate was 8bps higher YTD.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.26% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.86%.

Points of Interest

The data this week was supportive of a resilient economy.  GDP and personal consumption were healthy.  Core PCE for the month of November remained above the Fed’s long-term target (2%) but it ticked lower from the month prior with no surprises to the upside.  This is backward looking data but it has led market participants to coalesce around the belief that the economy is poised to perform well in 2026.  The strong economic data has caused prognosticators to carefully consider the Fed’s need to decrease its policy rate in the year ahead.  The median projection derived from the Fed’s December dot plot showed just one cut in 2026 with an additional single cut in 2027.  The market started the year with a hunger for 2+ cuts year but interest rate futures were pricing slightly less than two cuts as of Friday afternoon.  Economic stimulus associated with the recently enacted tax reform as well as the performance of the job market will be the two items that have the biggest impact on the policy rate in 2026 in our view.

There are a handful of economic releases next week but the highlight will be the FOMC on Wednesday.  Fed fund futures are currently predicting almost no chance of a cut/raise and we agree.  The more interesting story could be President Trump revealing his preferred choice for the new Fed Chair.  He has consistently said that the announcement would occur in the month of January.  We would not be surprised if this news were to hit the tape at the conclusion of next Wednesday’s FOMC release.

Primary Market

The primary market was slower this week as earnings season continued to progress with many issuers still prohibited from bringing new deals due to quiet periods.  Through Thursday, $20.4bln in new debt was priced with a regional bank deal pending on Friday that will add $1.75bln to that total.  More than $170bln of new debt has been priced so far in 2026, with much of that total ($90.2bln) coming in the first full week of the year, which ended up as the 4^th busiest week of all-time.  The Fed meeting should lead to a front-end loaded calendar in the week ahead.  Dealers are looking for $35bln of new debt next week which would push the monthly total north of $200bln.

Flows

Demand for credit has been strong to start the year.  According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended January 21, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$3.09bln. This was the 8^th consecutive week of inflows dating back to last year.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$9.60bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.