Category: Investment Grade Weekly

08 Jan 2021

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads will finish the week unchanged after a minor bout of mid-week volatility that pushed spreads wider for a day.  Through the Thursday close, the OAS on the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate Index was 96, which is the same level that it closed to end 2020.  Treasury rates stole the headlines from spreads this week and are higher across the board, with the 10yr up 19 basis points week over week.  The sell-off in Treasuries began ahead of the Georgia special election and accelerated after the results, as the market began to price the expectation of more stimulus and Treasury supply.  Interestingly, rates were even able to shrug off a woeful December jobs report that showed the loss of -140k jobs during the month versus the concensus estimate for an addition of +50k.  We remain concerned about the health of the labor market, elevated unemployment and its impact on the economy’s ability to grow.

The high grade primary market was back in business this week with a strong start to the year as issuers borrowed $50bln.  It will be interesting to monitor new issue supply as 2021 progresses.  There are expectations for less supply but will this hold true?  In our view it is really a question of the economy and how quickly things get back to “normal.”  If things go swimmingly, then we would expect less supply but if re-opening takes longer than expected then that would be a case for more supply as companies that are more impacted by the pandemic may need to continue to tap the new issue market for balance sheet liquidity.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of December 31-January 6 were +$8.4bln.

 

 

 

20 Nov 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads will finish the week meaningfully tighter.  Treasuries have also rallied this week which has led to positive performance across the fixed income landscape due to the one-two punch of tighter spreads and lower rates.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday November 19 at 109 after closing the week prior at 114.  Through Thursday, the corporate index posted a year-to-date total return of +8.77%.

The high grade primary market was active again with $40 billion of new debt having been priced this week across 35 deals according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Next week is typically one of the slowest of the year in the bond markets, but if 2020 has anything to say about that it could be busier than expected.  The market is closed for Thanksgiving and then closes early at 2pm on Friday so any primary market activity will be on Monday or Tuesday of next week while the latter half of the week is likely to see little to no activity.   Monthly issuance for November has now eclipsed $83 billion while the yearly total keeps adding to its record size, now in excess of $1.7 trillion.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of November 12-18 were +$6.8bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$257.8bln.

 

 

 

13 Nov 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads are all set to finish the week tighter.  Risk assets fared well across the board this week on the back of positive vaccine news.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday November 12 at 115 after closing the week prior at 117.  Through Thursday, the corporate index posted a year-to-date total return of +7.71%.

The high grade primary market was fairly active given the Veterans Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Jumbo deals from Verizon and Bristol-Myers pushed the weekly issuance total north of $41bln.  Next week will be the last chance for issuers to access the market before things slow down ahead of Thanksgiving.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of November 5-11 were +$5.4bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$240.2bln.

 

 

 

30 Oct 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads widened this week in sympathy with equities.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday October 29 at 125 after closing the week prior at 123 while stocks are on track for their worst week since March.  Through Thursday, the corporate index posted a year-to-date total return of +6.59%.


The high grade primary market was quiet amid earnings, with just over $20bln in new debt brought to market.  This brings the monthly total for October to $80bln, which is in-line with market expectations.  November could see a lighter new issue calendar due to rising virus counts and the associated volatility that could come with it, the election next week and the Thanksgiving holiday.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of October 22-28 were +$5.0bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$236bln.  This was the 30th consecutive week of inflows into the investment grade credit markets.

23 Oct 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads are modestly tighter on the week.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday October 22 at 123 after closing the week prior at 125.  Through Thursday, the corporate index posted a year-to-date total return of +6.51%.  Falling Treasuries have been a headwind for corporate credit performance over the course of the past week with the 10-year Treasury nearly 10 basis points higher from its close the week prior.

The high grade primary market was quiet again this week, with just over $15bln in new debt brought to market.  Issuance is likely to remain in a holding pattern until after the election.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of October 15-21 were +$8.0bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$231bln.

16 Oct 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads are opening Friday morning unchanged as we head toward the conclusion of this holiday shortened week that featured only four trading days.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday October 15 at 126 after closing the week prior at 126.  Through Thursday, the corporate index has posted a year-to-date total return of +7.43%.

The high grade primary market was relatively quiet this week, with $15bln in new debt brought to market.  The next several weeks are likely to see more subdued levels of issuance as companies work their way through earnings reports and the election fast approaches.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of October 8-14 were +$8.5bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$220bln.

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) Hunt for Yield Pushes Investors Into Riskier Bonds Around Globe

  • Bond investors are pouring back into riskier debt in search of higher returns as they increasingly factor in years of low interest rates.
  • Even in Europe, where coronavirus cases are on the rise and Brexit negotiations are entering a critical phase, investors are taking more risks in a hunt for yield. The scarcity was highlighted this week by Italy’s sale of three year debt without offering any coupon on the bonds.
  • Junk-rated jet-engine maker Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc drew such demand for a bond sale this week that the company doubled the size of the offering to 2 billion pounds ($2.59 billion) equivalent and tightened the pricing.
  • European junk-rated borrowers have issued the most bonds since 2017 so far this year despite a lack of deals in March and August. Polish packaging firm Canpack, French shipping giant CMA CGM SA and French sugar producer Tereos are all currently marketing high-yield bonds.
  • Even more money could flow into riskier assets ahead. A flood of central bank liquidity meant to support struggling economies during the pandemic has left investors sitting on $16.3 trillion of negative-yielding debt.
  • Money managers are increasingly hungry for alternatives, particularly after Federal Reserve officials in September indicated they see rates holding near zero for at least three years. The world’s stock of negative-yielding bonds rose to a 13-month high this week on speculation central banks will keep buying.
  • Elsewhere in the hunt for yield, China drew bumper demand for a bond sale this week even amid increasing tensions with the U.S. Turkey returned to international debt markets last week despite mounting geopolitical risks. And across emerging markets, dollar notes sold by the lowest-rated borrowers are returning more than top-rated peers.
  • Nearly a third of Asia Pacific companies have scrapped or reduced dividends this year after the pandemic forced them to conserve cash.
  • CAM NOTE: We do not intend to engage in this yield chasing behavior for our portfolio and instead will focus on companies with durable businesses that have sustainable capital structures with the ability to weather the current downturn. Additionally we intend to keep our structural underweight on the lower-rated BAA portion of the investment grade universe.
18 Sep 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads are slightly tighter on the week.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday September 17 at 128 after closing the week prior at 130.  Spreads have traded in a very narrow range over the course of the last month, with the OAS on the index never closing wider than 131 or tighter than 126 since the week of August 17, with numerous ups and downs within that tight range. Through Thursday, the corporate index has posted a year-to-date total return of +7.43%.  The FOMC was on the tape Wednesday, signaling that rates will remain near zero through 2023, and there was little movement in Treasuries throughout the week.

The high grade primary market was active again, with $42bln in new debt issued, though this was down considerably versus the prior week.  Next week is expected to be slightly less busy, with syndicate supply forecasts weighing in at $30-$35bln.  The pace of issuance should continue to subside as we approach quarter end.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows into investment grade credit for the week of September 10-16 were +$4.5bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$196bln.  This was the 23rd consecutive week of inflows into the investment grade corporate bond market.

 

11 Sep 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads were mixed during the holiday shortened week and look likely to finish close to unchanged or perhaps a touch wider after it is all said and done.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday September 10 at 131 after closing the week prior at 129.  The market has a firmer tone as we got to print on Friday morning, which is a day of remembrance for those that we lost on September 11, 2001.  Through Thursday, the corporate index has posted a year-to-date total return of +7.07% versus +4.74% for the S&P500.  Treasury yields fluctuated throughout the week and are looking to finish modestly lower versus the week prior.  Treasuries were not nearly as volatile as equity markets which saw a continuation of the tech-related whipsaw which developed in the latter half of last week.

To say that the high grade primary market was active this week would be an understatement, especially considering that Monday was a holiday.  Through Thursday 44 investment grade companies sold over $65 billion in new debt according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  This is a remarkably high total over the course of just 3 trading days.  Next week is expected to be busy as well with consensus estimates calling for $40bln in new supply.  It is a good time to be an issuer with attractive borrowing costs and robust demand.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows for the week of September 3-9 were +$6.4bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$163bln.  This was the 22nd consecutive week of inflows into the investment grade corporate bond market.

21 Aug 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads are wider on the week.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday August 20 at 131 after closing the week of August 10-14 at 128.  The market has the feel of a quiet summer Friday as we go to print this morning.  Through Thursday, the corporate index has posted a year-to-date total return of +7.34%.  Treasury yields are lower this week after having trended higher each of the last two.

The high grade primary market was reasonably active again this week, especially for what is typically a seasonally slow time as issuers printed nearly $36bln in new debt.  Of note, the August all-time issuance record has already been broken with nearly $120bln in issuance month-to-date, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Consensus estimates are calling for ~$20bln in issuance next week.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows for the week of August 13-19 were +$8.0bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$136bln.  This was the 20th consecutive week of inflows into the investment grade corporate bond market.

31 Jul 2020

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Spreads took a breather this week and may finish the week a touch wider when it is all said and done.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index closed on Thursday July 31 at 133 after closing the week of July 20-24 at 131.  Through Thursday, the corporate index has posted a year-to-date total return of +8.35%.  Rates have continued to grind lower over the course of the past two weeks and the 10yr Treasury is flirting with its lowest levels of 2020.

The high grade primary market was more active this week as borrowers brought just over $25bln in new debt to market.  According to data compiled by Bloomberg, $64.4bln in new debt was priced during the month of July which was underwhelming versus consensus estimates of $90-$100bln.  The primary market should continue to pick up in subsequent weeks as companies continue to report earnings, exiting blackout periods.

According to data compiled by Wells Fargo, inflows for the week of July 23-29 were +$10bln which brings the year-to-date total to +$92.9bln.