Author: Kathryn Bailey

25 Aug 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, IG fund flows for the week were $2.6nln. This brings the YTD total to +$213bln in total inflows. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was just shy of $4bln, as issuers have decided to wait until after Labor Day before coming to market. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $932.88bn. Investment grade issuance thus far in 2017 is down 2% y/y when compared to 2016.

(WSJ) Wal-Mart and Google Partner to Challenge Amazon

  • Google and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are joining forces in a partnership that includes enabling voice-ordered purchases from the retail giant on Google’s virtual assistant, challenging rival Amazon.com Inc.’s grip on the next wave of e-commerce.
  • Wal-Mart said Wednesday that next month it will join Google’s online-shopping marketplace, Google Express.
  • While the deal will add hundreds of thousands of Wal-Mart items to Google Express, it will also give Wal-Mart access to voice ordering. The deal won’t alter how consumers receive their orders, because Wal-Mart will fulfill purchases made through Google Express.
  • Wal-Mart said it will share consumers’ purchase history with Google to enable users to quickly reorder items, a primary function of voice-controlled orders for commodity shopping.
  • “How do you help people who are going to be interacting more and more with devices get their weekly shopping tasks taken care of?” Google Express chief Brian Elliott said in an interview, citing a key reason for the partnership.

(Bloomberg) Bayer Faces In-Depth EU Review of $66 Billion Monsanto Deal

  • EU sets Jan. 8 deadline for last in trio of mega-mergers
  • EU flags concerns over higher prices and reduced innovation
    • The European Commission flagged worries that the deal to create the world’s largest pesticides and seeds company risked raising prices for farmers, lowering quality and reducing choice and innovation. It set a Jan. 8 deadline for its merger investigation.
    • Bayer said it had expected an extended review “due to the size and scope of the transaction.” The company said the deal “will be highly beneficial for farmers and consumers” and it will work constructively with the EU.
    • Monsanto said it was committed to working with regulators globally “with a view to receiving approval of the proposed transaction by the end of 2017.” It said it looked forward to supporting growers’ efforts to be more productive, profitable and sustainable.
    • The combined firm will have the largest portfolio of pesticides products and the strongest global market positions in seeds and traits. The EU said it will check if rivals’ access to distributors and farmers could worsen if the company were to link sales of pesticides or seeds to digital services that provide tailored advice or aggregated data to farmers.
    • Regulators’ concerns over innovation for agricultural chemicals saw DuPont Co. offer to sell part of its pesticides business and related research and development operations before it won EU approval to merge with Dow Chemical Co. earlier this year. China National Chemical Corp. also had to make concessions before the EU would clear its $43 billion takeover of Swiss pesticide maker Syngenta AG.

(Business Journal) Airbus to deliver first US-built A320 to Spirit Airlines this week

  • The Miramar-based, low-cost airline touts its fleet as being the “youngest of any major U.S. airline,” operating more than 420 flights to destinations in the United States, Caribbean and Latin America. As of March 31, the airline had 100 aircraft. Orders placed in late December 2016 and renegotiated in the first quarter of 2017 will add 73 aircraft to Spirit’s fleet by the end of 2021, according to documents the company filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

(WSJ) Chevron CEO John Watson to Step Down

  • The transition is expected to be announced next month, although Mr. Watson’s successor hasn’t yet been finalized by the board and plans could change, the people said. Mr. Watson isn’t expected to depart immediately and is likely to remain after the announcement for an orderly transition, the people said.
  • His likely departure underscores the dramatic shift under way at big oil companies as they adapt to a prolonged period of lower prices brought about by the U.S. shale boom. While the companies once favored swashbuckling leaders who bet billions on megamergers and pricey projects in far-flung regions, many are now turning to executives adept at squeezing every last dollar from a barrel through refining, and shorter-term investments that turn a profit faster.
  • The leading candidate to succeed Mr. Watson, 60, is Michael Wirth, 56, a refining specialist who earlier this year was elevated to the position of vice chairman at the oil company, the second largest in the U.S. behind Exxon Mobil Corp. , the people said.
  • Chevron directors see Mr. Wirth’s years of experience wringing costs out of big plants that process fuel and chemicals as a critical need in a new era for oil markets defined by $50-a-barrel crude, the people said.
  • “Big oil is turning toward very disciplined, returns-centric leaders who can manage razor-thin margins in disruptive, volatile markets,” said Les Csorba, who advises energy companies on CEO succession at executive search firm Heidrick & Struggles International , and wasn’t involved in Mr. Watson’s succession. “This is the answer for these companies as low prices continue.”
18 Aug 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to a JP Morgan report, flows week to date were -$2.1 billion and year to date flows stand at -$12.5 billion. New issuance for the week was $7.2 billion and year to date HY is at $171 billion.

(Food Business News) B&G Foods names head of corporate strategy

  • Bruce C. Wacha has been appointed to the newly created position of executive vice-president of corporate strategy and business development for B&G Foods, Inc., effective Aug. 21. In this role, Mr. Wacha will oversee the company’s corporate strategy and business development, including mergers and acquisitions, capital markets transactions and investor relations. Additionally, he will serve on B&G Foods’ executive management team.
  • “We are very pleased to have Bruce Wacha join our team,” said Robert C. Cantwell, chief executive officer of B&G Foods. “M.&A. and capital markets transactions are vital to our growth strategy, and Bruce is an experienced and talented executive who will be a valuable addition as we continue to execute that strategy.”
  • Mr. Wacha joins B&G Foods from Amira Nature Foods Ltd., where he spent three years as the chief financial officer and executive director on the board of directors. Previously, he spent more than 15 years in the financial services industry advising corporate clients across the food, beverage and consumer products landscape at Deutsche Bank Securities, Merrill Lynch and Prudential Securities.

(Business Wire) AES Announces Pricing of $500 Million of Senior Notes in Public Offering

  • The AES Corporation announced that it has priced $500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.125% senior notes due 2027. AES intends to use the net proceeds from the offering of the Notes to fund the concurrent tender offer to purchase AES’ outstanding 8.00% senior notes due 2020 and to pay certain related fees and expenses. AES intends to use any remaining net proceeds from this offering after completion of the tender offer to retire certain of its outstanding indebtedness. The closing of the offering of the Notes is expected to occur, subject to certain customary conditions, on August 28, 2017.

(CNBC) Tesla’s first junk bond offering is a hit

  • Tesla raised $1.8 billion, $300 million more than expected, in its first high-yield junk bond offering.
  • The yield of 5.30 percent was slightly higher than the original guidance of 5.25 percent.
  • Goldman Sachs was the lead underwriter of the eight-year bonds. S&P rated the bonds negative B and Moody’s B3.
  • “It was well-received,” said Efraim Levy of CFRA. “In a large extent it does show that people are interested in the bonds of the company because they believe in the long-term growth … story.”
  • It “speaks to the sheer insanity found in the high-yield market to have a deal like this upsized with terms so unappealing to investors,” said Larry McDonald, author of The Bear Traps Report newsletter. “The deck is stacked for Tesla in bond deal terms, congrats to Elon Musk.”

Meanwhile, away from CNBC, a daily high yield publication ran the headline “Tesla Trades Terribly.”

  • The article had many quotes from bond traders on Wall Street. One trader commented that the Tesla deal “was one that a lot of high-yield money managers basically avoided.”
  • Another trader said that there was some demand overseas but that “among your regular on-the-run high-yield guys, we couldn’t find anybody that played in it.”
  • Finally, a trader went on to say that the “deal was away from the normal high-yield universe” and the order book “was hyped.”

(Bloomberg) Junk-Debt Wrecking Ball Swings Toward Telecom

  • Buried in last week’s debt sell-off was an important message to credit investors: Not all bonds are the same, and those of telecommunications companies appear worse off than others.
  • While U.S. high-yield bonds lost 0.8 percent last week, debt of companies such as Frontier, CenturyLink and Intelsat were hit even harder. Speculative-grade bonds of telecom companies lost 1.3 percent on average, more than those in any other industry.
  • The pronounced industry weakness was due in part to some company-specific issues, such as some disappointing second-quarter earnings and merger speculation. But the disproportionate declines highlight broader investor concern about an increasingly challenging backdrop for these companies.
  • While a collapse is hardly imminent for these companies, it’s worthwhile questioning what their futures look like in three, five or 10 years. And from debt investors’ perspective, it’s worth taking note of this, especially in light of current trends in the $1.3 trillion U.S. junk-bond market. Instead of a broad-based sell-off, weakness has cycled through specific sectors, one or two at a time. (Remember when energy bonds were the focus, back in 2014 and 2015, or retail debt of late?)

(Bloomberg) Energy Capital, Investors to Buy Calpine for $5.6 Billion

  • Private equity firm Energy Capital Partners and a consortium of investors have struck a deal to buy U.S. power generator Calpine Corp. for $5.6 billion in cash.
  • Tyler Reeder, a partner at Energy Capital, said the firm doesn’t expect to make any changes to the way Calpine operates or to the company’s financial policy and previously announced $2.7 billion debt reduction plan.
11 Aug 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to a Wells Fargo report, flows week to date were -$0.1 billion and year to date flows stand at -$5.7 billion. New issuance for the week was $8.1 billion and year to date HY is at $164 billion.

(Oil & Gas Journal) US rig count drops for third time in 6 weeks

  • The overall US rig count has recorded its largest decline since before the drilling rebound commenced in late May-early June of 2016.
  • Baker Hughes’ tally of active rigs in the US dropped 4 units to 954. However, this week’s downward movement was primarily supplied by gas-directed rigs. The overall count is still up 550 units since the bottom of the drilling dive on the weeks ended May 20-27, 2016.
  • US oil-directed rigs edged down a unit to 765, also their third drop of the past 6 weeks, during which time they’ve added just 7 units. They’re still up 449 units since May 27, 2016.
  • Gas-directed rigs fell 3 units to 189, mostly stagnant since May but still up 108 units since last Aug. 26.
  • US crude oil production, meanwhile, continues to rise according to preliminary estimates from the US Energy Information Administration. In EIA’s more-accurate monthly report based on its EIA-914 survey of producers, the agency indicated that May production averaged 9.17 million b/d, up 60,000 b/d from April. Weekly preliminary data for the month, however, put average May output above 9.3 million b/d, indicating that, for a second straight month, more-accurate survey data lagged behind preliminary weekly data.

(Fierce Cable) Altice’s Charter bid could be as high as $185B

  • Hungry European telecom conglomerate Altice could be prepping a bid as high as $185 billion for Charter Communications.
  • According to Reuters, the No. 2 U.S. cable company is worth $180 billion including debt—but excluding any takeover premium.
  • However, analysts have serious doubts as to whether Altice—which has a market cap of around $23 billion to go along with $22.6 billion in debt—has the balance sheet needed to entice Charter shareholders, notably the cable company’s biggest investor, Liberty Broadband and its chief, John Malone.
  • “On the most positive view of synergies, we don’t think there is enough value for Malone and other Charter investors to accept a deal where they cede control, despite holding the majority of the pro forma equity, while taking on the risk associated with a deal,” said a New Street Research investor memo spearheaded by analyst Jonathan Chaplin.

(Business Wire) AES Reports Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results; Reaffirms 2017 Guidance and Long-Term Expectations

  • AES reported financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2017. Compared with last year, the Company benefited from higher margins, primarily driven by higher availability at certain generation businesses, and lower Parent interest expense.
  • Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities for the second quarter of 2017 was $251 million, a decrease of $472 million compared to the second quarter of 2016. The decrease was primarily driven by the receipt of overdue receivables at Maritza in Bulgaria in 2016, and the impact from the recovery of high purchased power costs at Eletropaulo in Brazil in 2016. Second quarter 2017 Consolidated Free Cash Flow (a non-GAAP financial measure) decreased $448 million to $106 million compared to the second quarter of 2016, primarily due to the same drivers as Consolidated Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities.
  • “In the last few months, we completed the acquisition of sPower, the largest independent solar developer and operator in U.S., brought on-line an additional 122 MW in the Dominican Republic by closing the cycle at DPP and closed on $2 billion in non-recourse financing for the 1.4 GW Southland CCGT and energy storage project in California,” said Andrés Gluski, AES President and Chief Executive Officer. “These are concrete steps towards achieving our growth objectives, based on long-term, U.S. Dollar-denominated contracts, with decreased carbon intensity. Overall, we are making good progress on our 5 GW of projects under construction, with the exception of our 531 MW Alto Maipo hydroelectric project in Chile, where we are disappointed with the project’s current status and continued cost overruns.”
  • “Our second quarter results reflect our efforts to improve the efficiency of our portfolio through higher availability and our capital allocation decisions that resulted in lower Parent interest,” said Tom O’Flynn, AES Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. “Based on our performance year-to-date, we are reaffirming our 2017 guidance and expectations through 2020.”

(Bloomberg) Junk Bonds Slump as Morgan Stanley Sees a Bigger Unwind Ahead

  • A high-yield bond fund run by BlackRock Inc. slumped on Thursday to its lowest level since March, a day after Morgan Stanley warned a correction may already be underway. The cost of protecting speculative-grade bonds against default in the credit-default swap market climbed to its highest level since July 6. Investors demanded the most extra yield in almost a month to buy junk debt, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index fixed late Wednesday.
  • Investors haven’t abandoned the junk market altogether — Tesla Inc. will probably pay lower-than-average yields on $1.5 billion of bonds it’s selling now. But that kind of enthusiasm for speculative-grade securities may get increasingly rare, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
04 Aug 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended August 2, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $1.485m. This marks 33 straight weeks of inflows and inflows in 69 of the last 74 weeks. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $79.026bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $25.49bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $855.925bn. Investment grade issuance thus far in 2017 is nearly identical to the total seen through this period in 2016.

(Bloomberg) Teva 10Y, 30Y Bond Spreads Again Get Crushed

  • Teva Pharmaceutical bonds are seeing high volume for the second day amid reports that bond covenants may be breached. Its 3.15 percent coupon bond due 2026 tops the most active list, according to Trace data.
  • Client and affiliate flows account for 85 percent of the volume. Client buying is near 2.3 times selling. Its spread has widened to +190 area compared with +170 around close of business Thursday and +140 area last Friday. The wider spreads may have enticed clients to be better buyers than sellers today.
  • Teva was cut to BBB- by Fitch, outlook negative, this morning. Yesterday Moody’s cut Teva to Baa3 from Baa2 while S&P said its ratings on the company are not affected by the report of lower-than-expected second-quarter results and reduced 2017 guidance.
  • The dramatic repricing has brought the investment-grade name closer to junk comparables.

(Bloomberg) SoftBank Default Risks Jump as Son Mulls Charter Takeover

  • The possibility that SoftBank Group Corp. will pile on even more debt if founder Masayoshi Son goes ahead with a bid for Charter Communications Inc. is starting to spook the bond market.
  • The cost to insure SoftBank’s debt against nonpayment has jumped 17.2 basis points this week to 156.7 basis points on Wednesday, the highest level since Jan. 9, after people familiar with the matter said the company has as much as $65 billion in financing lined up as Son weighs whether to make an offer. Theyield premium on the firm’s 6 percent dollar perpetual bonds has surged 31 basis points in the period, Bloomberg-compiled prices show.
  • Going through with an acquisition of Charter would cause SoftBank’s already bloated debt burden to balloon even further. The ratio of debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization at billionaire Son’s company is about 5.67, more than double the median of its telecom peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Charter on Sunday rebuffed Son’s initial proposal to combine the company with Sprint Corp., which SoftBank controls.

(Bloomberg) IG NEW ISSUE SECONDARY: TMT Issues Trading Wider Despite NICs

  • This week’s Technology Media and Telecommunications bonds were among the new issues that widened the most in secondary trading, according to Trace.
  • Comcast Corp’s bonds last traded 7-8bps, Verizon Communications’ new 16y is off 2bps and last week’s AT&T jumbo $22.5b transaction is also trading 5-11bps back of issue levels.
  • Comcast & AT&T’s bonds are trading wider despite many of their tranches pricing with double-digit new issue concessions. These issuers have a plethora of debt outstanding suggesting healthy new issue concessions would be required to sell the bonds. Concessions, however, are beginning to creep back into the market across sectors as Kinder Morgan (20bps), Capital One NA (10bps) paid up to price their deals. We have been in a low yield, tight credit spread environment for an extended period and these recent prints could be signaling a degree of investor pushback.
21 Jul 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended July 19, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $3.817m down from $2.299bn the prior week. This marks 31 straight weeks of inflows and inflows in 67 of the last 72 weeks. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $75.222bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $47.7bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $794.085bn, which is down 3% when compared to 2016.

(Bloomberg) Abbott Boosts Full Year Forecast as Deals Fall Into Place

  • The company raised its full-year guidance after showing strength in its pain control and diabetes businesses. Abbott closed its $29 billion deal for St. Jude Medical in January, doubling the size of its medical technology division and expanding beyond devices used to clear clogged heart arteries. Its diagnostics business, about to swell with the addition of Alere Inc. after a protracted battle, is showing strength as well.
  • The legacy St. Jude business grew at about a 4 percent pace in the quarter, after breaking even for the past four years, Abbott Chief Executive Officer Miles White said during a conference call with analysts. That trend should continue or accelerate, he said, as the company continues to roll out new products like an MRI-safe defibrillator, helping it regain sales lost to rivals that already offer the technology.
  • “Our forecast, or deal model, was built on the expectation of sequential improvement in their sales going forward,” he said. “We are seeing that.”
  • The smaller operations secured by the St. Jude deal are posting the greatest gains. Demand for devices to control pain propelled growth of 49 percent, while sales of tools that deal with the heart’s electrical pathways rose 10 percent. The company’s focus on diabetes, with Bigfoot Biomedical picking Abbott’s Freestyle Libre for its artificial pancreas, yielded 21 percent growth.
  • The outsized performances are easing the pain caused by slowing markets in the company’s former key industries, like heart stents, which was down 6 percent, and devices like pacemakers and defibrillators, which fell 9.2 percent.
  • Abbott raised its full-year guidance range to $2.43 to $2.53 per share, excluding some items. That’s up from a previous forecast of $2.40 to $2.50 per share.

(WSJ) Lessons From Microsoft’s Success in the Cloud

  • Microsoft Corp.’s success in the cloud is driving the growth of the overall business. That’s because it is the business. Cloud isn’t a satellite orbiting around the data-center sun. The numbers speak for themselves. As the Journal’s Jay Greene reports, Microsoft’s “Intelligent Cloud segment, which includes Azure, rose 11% to $7.4 billion. In the Productivity and Business Processes segment, which includes the Office franchise, revenue climbed 21% to $8.4 billion.”
  • Microsoft doesn’t disclose revenue figures Azure and Office 365, but it said revenue from these businesses rose 97% and 43% respectively, surprising CFO Amy Hood. “Azure was the primary source of our outperformance in the quarter,” she said in an interview. “It’s higher than I was expecting.”\
  • Microsoft has gained traction in the cloud, one might argue, because it has accepted the idea that it isn’t the only platform that customers use. CIOs employ other clouds and they still have plenty of use for the data center. Microsoft has crafted a hybrid approach around those customer intentions. More recently, it has looked to build data and intelligence into its cloud infrastructure, platforms and applications. As the Journal notes, “Microsoft is working to connect its business products to LinkedIn, giving sales representatives using its Dynamics software, for example, tools to easily mine the professional social network to prospect for leads.” As this process continues, expect the cloud to fade into the background, much as the electric grid has faded into the background. In a few years, we won’t think about cloud computing any more than we think about “electrical toasters.” The cloud will be an invisible and ubiquitous dimension of most elements of business.

(Bloomberg) Scripps Talks Said to Be Advanced, Deal Soon as This Month

  • Negotiations to acquire media company Scripps Networks Interactive Inc. are advanced and a deal could be announced as soon as this month, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Both Discovery Communications Inc. and Viacom Inc. are vying to buy Scripps, and are likely to fund the deal with a mixture of cash and shares, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details aren’t public. No final decisions have been made and talks may still fall apart, they said.
  • Shares in Scripps rose as much as 4.1 percent in New York to a high of $80.02. They had already climbed about 14 percent this week on news of the possible combinations, giving the Knoxville, Texas-based company a market valuation of about $10 billion. Viacom was up less than 1 percent to $36.31 at 2:40 p.m., while Discovery fell less than 1 percent to $26.98. Representatives for Discovery, Viacom and Scripps declined to comment.
  • Buying Scripps could help the larger media companies cut costs, gain negotiating leverage with distributors and expand internationally as their U.S. TV businesses faces new pressures. Network owners are grappling with a decline in subscriptions for cable and satellite services as they lose viewers to online video services and social networks.

(Bloomberg) BNY Mellon Ups Revenue View, Shows 2Q Momentum: Earnings Outlook

  • Post-2Q Earnings Outlook: BNY Mellon showed a further acceleration in revenue in 2Q, with trends in fee income and managed assets boding well for 2H.
  • Fee growth of 4% for investment services and 6% in investment management marks another rise after 1Q’s pickup, while both assets under custody and management hit record levels.
  • The updated 2017 view includes spread income growth at the high-end of its prior 4-6% range and a cost rise of about 1%, with a caveat that this would be “challenging.”
21 Jul 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $1.9 billion and year to date flows stand at -$5.7 billion. New issuance for the week was $3.5 billion and year to date HY is at $149 billion.

(PR Newswire) Valeant Agrees To Sell Obagi Medical Products Business

  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. announced that certain affiliates of the Company have entered into an agreement to sell its Obagi Medical Products business for $190 million in cash to Haitong International Zhonghua Finance Acquisition Fund I, L.P. Limited partners of the Fund include industry veterans in other geographic markets, such as China Regenerative Medicine International Limited.
  • “The sale of Obagi marks additional progress in our efforts to streamline our operations and reduce debt,” Joseph C. Papa, chairman and CEO, Valeant. “As we continue to transform Valeant, we will remain focused on the core businesses that will drive high value for our shareholders.”
  • Obagi Medical Products is a global specialty pharmaceutical company founded by leading skin care experts in 1988. Obagi products are designed to help minimize the appearance of premature skin aging, skin damage, hyperpigmentation, acne and sun damage and are primarily available through dermatologists, plastic surgeons, medical spas and other skin care professionals.
  • Valeant will use proceeds from the sale to permanently repay term loan debt under its Senior Secured Credit Facility. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2017, subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of applicable regulatory approvals.

(Reuters) Buffett, Malone explore investment in Sprint

  • Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc and John Malone’s Liberty Media Corp are exploring an investment of between $10 billion and $20 billion in U.S. wireless carrier Sprint Corp, people familiar with the matter said.
  • Masayoshi Son, the chief executive of Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp, which controls Sprint, met Buffett and Malone separately this week at an annual gathering of business and media moguls in Sun Valley, Idaho, the sources said on Friday, confirming a report in The Wall Street Journal. Sprint CEO Marcelo Claure is also involved in the negotiations, the sources said.
  • Berkshire Hathaway is considering an investment of up to $20 billion in Sprint, while the amount that Liberty Media is looking to invest is not yet known, the sources said. Talks are in the early stages and could still fall apart, the people added.

(New York Times) Health Care Overhaul Collapses as Two Republican Senators Defect

  • Two more Republican senators declared on Monday night that they would oppose the bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act
  • The announcement by the senators, Mike Lee of Utah and Jerry Moran of Kansas, left their leaders at least two votes short of the number needed to begin debate on their bill to dismantle the health law. Two other Republican senators, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Susan Collins of Maine, had already said they would not support a procedural step to begin debate.
  • With four votes against the bill, Republican leaders now have two options.
  • They can try to rewrite it in a way that can secure 50 Republican votes, a seeming impossibility at this point, given the complaints by the defecting senators. Or they can work with Democrats on a narrower measure to fix the flaws in the Affordable Care Act that both parties acknowledge.
  • Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, conceded Monday night that the effort to repeal and immediately replace the Affordable Care Act will not be successful. He outlined plans to vote now on a measure to repeal the Affordable Care Act, with it taking effect later. That has almost no chance to pass, however, since it could leave millions without insurance and leave insurance markets in turmoil.

(CNET) T-Mobile shakes off rival unlimited plans as growth soars

  • The nation’s third-largest wireless carrier said it added 1.3 million net new customers in the second quarter, helped largely by the 786,000 new phone customers on a post-paid plan, or who pay at the end of the month.
  • The numbers underscore the fact that despite the rival carriers throwing themselves at you for your business, T-Mobile continues to win over new customers. The heightened pressure has resulted in more deals for consumers, including Sprint offering a year of service for free(excluding taxes and fees), and its prepaid arm Virgin Mobile going with an all-iPhone model with a rate of $1 for the first year of service. AT&T is throwing its DirecTV Now streaming service into its unlimited plan for $10 extra. Likewise, it was the first full quarter that Verizon offered its unlimited plan.
  • T-Mobile, conversely, has been relatively tame and quietly raised the price of its One Plus unlimited plan by $10, matching the price of Verizon’s $80 unlimited data plan.
  • Unlike in previous quarters, T-Mobile is the first of the big carriers to report results, so we won’t know for sure how well it fared relative to its competitors. The company has consistently outstripped its rivals in subscriber growth, leading the industry for 14 straight quarters.
14 Jul 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 28, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $2.299m down from $2.535bn the prior week. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $71.045bn. According to Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $26.49bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $746.385bn, which is down 5.5% when compared to 2016.

(WSJ) Visa Takes War on Cash to Restaurants

  • Visa Inc. has a new offer for small merchants: take thousands of dollars from the card giant to upgrade their payment technology. In return, the businesses must stop accepting cash.
  • The company unveiled the initiative on Wednesday as part of a broader effort to steer Americans away from using old-fashioned paper money. Visa says it is planning to give $10,000 apiece to up to 50 restaurants and food vendors to pay for their technology and marketing costs, as long as the businesses pledge to start what Visa executive Jack Forestell calls a “journey to cashless.”
  • Consumers at those stores would be able to pay for goods or services only with debit or credit cards or with their cellphones. In exchange, Visa is offering to pay for upgrades to merchants’ technology at the checkout line so that they can accept contactless payments, such as Apple Pay . The $10,000 incentive can also help cover some of the merchants’ marketing expenses.
  • Visa has long considered cash one of its biggest competitors and has been taking steps to chip away at it. Getting rid of cash is a priority for Visa Chief Executive Al Kelly, who took over late last year, especially as cash and check transactions continue to grow globally.
  • “We’re focused on putting cash out of business,” Mr. Kelly said at Visa’s investor day last month, adding that converting check and cash to digital and electronic payments is the company’s “number-one growth lever.”
  • Still, cash remains a formidable competitor. Check and cash transactions totaled $17 trillion world-wide in 2016, up about 2% from a year prior, according to Visa.
  • Cards have made a dent in cash in the U.S., but cash remains the most widely used payment form among Americans, accounting for 32% of all consumer transactions in 2015, compared with 27% for debit cards and 21% for credit cards, according to a November report by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

(Moody’s) HCA’s Increased ABL Reduces Likelihood of Upgrade of Senior Secured Notes

  • HCA Inc. (subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, Inc.) recently amended and extended its asset-based revolving credit facility (ABL). The facility was upsized to $3.75 bilion from $3.25 billion and the expiration date was extended to June 2022. In addition, HCA amended and extended its $2 billion revolving credit facility. The expiration date of the revolving credit facility was extended to 2022 from 2019. There are no changes to any ratings including the Ba2 Corporate Family Rating, the Baa2 rating on the ABL, the Ba1 on the senior secured debt and the B1 on the unsecured notes. The rating outlook is positive.
  • Absent any further changes to the capital structure, there is reduced likelihood that the senior secured debt (including notes and credit facilities) would be upgraded to investment grade if Moody’s upgrades HCA’s CFR to Ba1. This is due to changes in the HCA’s capital structure and attributes of Moody’s Loss Given Default Methodology.

(Bloomberg) Implications of Tax Policy Changes on IG Industrials

  • Potential changes in tax laws could have credit implications for high grade industrials. The 28 high grade industrials tracked at BI have accumulated $55 billion of cash, largely in non-U.S. subsidiaries, mainly to avoid current repatriation laws. Cash-to-revenue averaged as low as 8% for the peers as recently as 2008, but topped 28% at year-end. That suggests about $27 billion could be repatriated, possibly earmarked for share repurchases and dividends, akin to 2004’s tax holiday.
  • Honeywell, Illinois Tool Works, Cummins and Rockwell Automation are among the group outliers, with above-average ratios, suggesting they may have more opportunity to bring cash home.

(WSJ) Corporate Bond Markets Asleep at the Wheel

  • There’s a fine line in financial markets between resilience and complacency. Corporate bonds are sitting right on it.
  • Global government bonds have been shaken as central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, have signaled that the clock is ticking on ultra-loose monetary policy. Ten-year German bond yields have risen about 0.3 percentage point from their late-June lows, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields too.
  • Yet corporate bonds haven’t even blinked. Indeed, the yield spread on European and U.S. investment-grade bonds versus underlying government debt has actually compressed since the turmoil started, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show. Yields have risen, just not by as much as on government bonds. At 0.99 percentage point in Europe and 1.12 points in the U.S., investment-grade spreads are close to their tightest level since the global financial crisis.
  • And credit conditions may be shifting. Activist investors are making waves in Europe: perhaps the best example is Dan Loeb at hedge fund Third Point targeting consumer giant Nestlé , pitting shareholder interests against those of bondholders. The company promised to double its leverage ratio to fund stock buybacks, yet spreads on its bonds barely reacted. Better earnings prospects should support corporate bonds; but the real benefit will accrue to shareholders, not bondholders. Spreads do offer some protection against falling bond prices, but little against a deterioration in credit quality.
  • Corporate bonds have benefited greatly from central-bank support and benign credit conditions. Shifting tides mean relying on those factors persisting looks risky.
23 Jun 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 21, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $1.55bn down from $2.603bn the prior week. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $65.843bn. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $19.675bn, which was underwhelming relative to consensus. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $700.045bn, which trails 2016 by 3%. Barring a Friday turnaround, WTI crude oil is headed for its fifth consecutive weekly drop, and while IG remains just off YTD tights, weakening oil prices are likely weighing on primary issuance.

(Bloomberg) Celanese, Blackstone to Form Venture for Cigarette Filter Fiber

  • Celanese Corp. and Blackstone Group agreed to form a joint venture to create a global supplier of acetate tow, a derivative of wood pulp used in making cigarette filters and other products.
  • The business will combine Celanese’s Cellulose Derivatives and Blackstone’s Rhodia Acetow units, the companies said Sunday in a joint statement. Celanese will own 70 percent of the venture and Blackstone the remaining 30 percent, and the as-yet-unnamed venture will distribute $1.6 billion to Celanese when it closes.
  • A tasteless, odorless form of cellulose, acetate tow is also used to make products such as marker tips, air fresheners and perfume dispensers. The new entity is expected to have 2017 pro forma revenue of about $1.3 billion with about 2,400 employees and will benefit from synergies in supply procurement, innovation, energy, equipment and other services, according to the statement.
  • “The combination of these tow assets will enhance our ability to serve customers more efficiently and reliably from a global production footprint while also creating growth opportunities for employees,” said Mark Rohr, chief executive officer of Celanese.
  • Celanese will name three members of the new company’s five-member board. Blackstone will pick the other two.

(BNA) Linde and Praxair Prepared for Long Haul in Antitrust Fight

  • Linde AG and Praxair Inc. are girding for a long antitrust fight across multiple countries for their proposed merger of equals, and have given themselves a generous two years to close the deal.
  • The two companies announced their proposed merger on June 1. The combined entity, with a current value in excess of $70 billion, would become the biggest player in a concentrated industrial gases market worldwide. It would outrank current market leader Air Liquide SA, which combined with Airgas Inc. in 2016 for $13 billion. The remaining players in the market have less than half the market position of either large firm, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • By setting a closing deadline far in the future, Linde and Praxair have avoided having their contract expire before their deal clears regulatory hurdles. But they face other risks, including changes in the market and extra costs to sealing the deal, Jones Day partner Chip MacDonald told Bloomberg BNA.
  • MacDonald, who handles bank and broker dealer mergers with a complex regulatory overlay, said he doesn’t see parties setting longer deadlines in his own practice. A one-year expiration keeps everybody focused on closing the deal, including regulators, he noted.
  • Most notable examples include scuttled mega-mergers between Staples Inc. and Office Depot Inc., Sysco Corp. and US Foods Holding Corp., and Electrolux AB and General Electric Co.
  • U.S. regulators examined those mergers based on a narrow slice of “national accounts” served by limited big players. When regulators draw the market on that basis, it is the scale and scope of the operation that matters, not operational overlap that can be cured by divesting a few facilities or product lines.
  • “The gas industry’s growth is defined by new projects at customers’ sites,” said Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Jason Miner in an analysis. “It’s this pipeline of potential on-site sales, rather than overlaps in installed footprints, that would likely drive regulatory concerns in a Praxair-Linde combination.”

(Bloomberg, Reuters) AT&T Awaiting Justice Department Details for Time Warner Deal

  • AT&T senior executive VP Bob Quinn said the company is still unsure what final conditions may be needed as part of the approval process.
  • The Justice Department is continuing its review of the $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc. by telecom company AT&T , with AT&T still awaiting details about any final requirements to get the deal done, Reuters reports.
  • Speaking with C-SPAN this week AT&T senior executive VP for external and legislative affairs Bob Quinn said the company is still unsure what final conditions may be needed as part of the approval process.
  • “That conversation is just beginning really. We’ve gotten through the point where we’re produced all the data and answered all the questions and I think that process will kick off this summer,” Quinn said, according to Reuters.

(Bloomberg) Medtronic Announces $5B Share Buyback; Boosts Qtr Dividend 7%

  • Medtronic qtr cash dividend raised to 46c/shr from 43c vs. estimate 47c, the company said in a press release.
    • Dividend is payble on July 26 to holders of record at the close of business July 7
    • Buyback replaces previous 2015 repurchase authorization
    • NOTE: 15 buys, 12 holds, 0 sells before today; avg PT $92.35

(Bloomberg) Dow-DuPont Wins U.S. Antitrust Nod to Create Chemicals Giant

(Bloomberg) Committee Approves Extension of Nuclear Production Tax Credit

16 Jun 2017

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Lipper, for the week ended June 14, investment grade funds posted a net inflow of $2.603bn. Per Lipper data, the year-to-date net inflow into investment grade funds was $64.293bn. Per Bloomberg, investment grade corporate issuance for the week was $13.75bn. Through the week, YTD total corporate bond issuance was $680.37bn, which now trails 2016 by 5.5%. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday was a big factor in the lackluster primary calendar this week.

(CNBC) Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks weighs in on drug costs and health reform

  • CEO David Ricks on Thursday zeroed in on drug costs and the need for faster regulatory approvals as the debate over health-care reform rages on.
  • “We hope this is a moment where we can make improvements in the health care system for everyday Americans,” he told CNBC in an interview at the Heartland Summit in Minnesota.
  • One issue being talked about, according to Ricks, is why individual payers in high-deductible plans are paying the list price for medications.
  • “Because we’re providing deep rebates to payers in the system who enjoy those, but the small guy, the consumer on the street, doesn’t get that same benefit,” Ricks said.
  • He also advocated for faster FDA approval on generic drugs and “innovative breakthroughs,” in areas such as Alzheimer’s and cancer treatment, to help increase competition in the pharmaceutical industry.
  • Drug costs have become an increasingly visible issue following the controversial price hikes orchestrated by pharma bro Martin Shkreli and the uproar over Mylan’s skyrocketing EpiPen costs, among other developments.

(Bloomberg) Banks Leave Savers Waiting After Being Quick to Raise Loan Rates

  • Federal Reserve officials raised the benchmark lending rate to a range of 1 percent to 1.25 percent on Wednesday; the central bank’s third such move in six months. In the hours since the decision was announced, U.S. banks including Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp and SunTrust Banks Inc. announced that they’ll pass on the higher interest rates to borrowers, without disclosing plans to provide better rates for deposit customers.
  • After years of stubbornly low interest rates, U.S. banks have been slow to increase offers for deposit accounts. They are seeking to benefit from a fatter margin between what they charge for loans and what they pay out to customers who provide the funds.
  • “We do think that there’s going to be a little bit more pressure on the retail side after this rate hike, and then certainly into the future,” Terry Dolan, chief financial officer at U.S. Bancorp, the country’s largest regional bank, said at an investor conference on Tuesday. So far, he said, the bank has “seen really no change in deposit betas on the retail side.”
  • At least one large U.S. bank has broken ranks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its deposit rate to 1.2 percent this month, among the highest rates offered by firms tracked on Bankrate.com, a website that monitors 4,800 financial institutions.

(Bloomberg) Dow-DuPont Wins U.S. Antitrust Nod to Create Chemicals Giant

  • Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. won U.S. antitrust approval for their $73 billion merger, overcoming one of the last remaining hurdles to a deal that would create a global chemicals giant.
  • DuPont agreed to sell off some of its herbicide and insecticide products to resolve government concerns that the combination would harm competition and raise prices for customers, according to a settlement filed Thursday in federal court in Washington. Dow will sell a plastics packaging unit.
  • The takeover is among a trio of mega-deals that would reshape the global agrochemicals industry if approved by regulators around the world. Bayer AG is seeking approval to buy Monsanto Co., while China National Chemical Corp.’s agreement to buy Syngenta AG is nearing completion. If cleared, the transactions together would consolidate the industry into four major players, including BASF SE.
  • The deals have drawn complaints from farmers and environmental activists who say the the combined companies’ control of pesticide and seed markets might increase prices for farmers.
  • The U.S. approval of the Dow-DuPont tie-up follows the European Union’sclearance of the deal in March, when DuPont agreed to divest part of its pesticide business, including research and development. The companies also won clearance from India and are awaiting approval from Canada.

(Bloomberg) Committee Approves Extension of Nuclear Production Tax Credit

  • House Ways and Means votes to approve legislation sought by the nuclear industry power that would extend an unused tax credit for new nuclear reactors.
    • H.R. 1551 extends Nuclear Production Tax credit past current sunset date of 2021
    • Bill also tweaks legislation to allow nonprofit public power co-owners of plants and other partners to use the credit by allocating their pro-rated share of the credit to private partners
    • Legislation is seen as beneficial to Southern Co. and Scana Corp., which have reactors under construction that could qualify for the credit
    • NOTE: Under current law, 1.8-cents-per-kilowatt-hour credit is capped at 6,000 megawatts and only available to nuclear power plants placed in service before January 2021
09 Jun 2017

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

Fund Flows & Issuance: According to Wells Fargo, flows week to date were $1.0 billion and year to date flows stand at -$2.8 billion. New issuance for the week was $6.8 billion and year to date HY is at $131 billion.

(New York Times) Trump Plans to Shift Infrastructure Funding to Cities, States and Business

  • President Trump will lay out a vision for curtailing the federal government’s funding of the nation’s infrastructure and calling upon states, cities and corporations to shoulder most of the cost of rebuilding roads, bridges, railways and waterways.
  • The federal government would make only a fractional down payment on rebuilding the nation’s aging infrastructure. Mr. Trump would rely on a combination of private industry, state and city tax money, and borrowed cash to finance the rest. It would be a departure from ambitious infrastructure programs of the past, in which the government played a major role and devoted substantial resources to paying the cost of large-scale projects.
  • “We like the template of not using taxpayer dollars to give taxpayers wins,” said Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council and an architect of the infrastructure plan.
  • “We want to be in the partnership business,” Mr. Cohn said. “We want to be in the facilitation business, and we’re willing to provide capital wherever necessary to help certain infrastructure along.”

(Reuters) Gold gains after disappointing U.S. jobs data

  • Gold prices rose to a near six-week high on Friday in response to disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data that lowered expectations for more aggressive U.S. interest rate increases.
  • Data showed that U.S. job growth slowed in May and employment gains in the prior two months were not as strong as previously reported, suggesting the labor market was losing momentum.
  • A slow recovery in the world’s biggest economy dents the likelihood for higher interest rates which benefits non-interest yielding and safe-haven gold.
  • “This is not the kind of report people had hoped for, and that has put pressure on the dollar and yields, and gold is always happy to profit from that,” Georgette Boele, commodity strategist at ABN AMRO, said.

(Bloomberg) Investors Given Black Eye on Frontier’s New $1.5 Billion Loan

  • Loan investors helped Frontier Communications Corp. raise $1.5 billion as the struggling company tries to shore up its balance sheet. Some of them are already regretting it.
  • The telecom operator’s term loan was sold and is now trading below its issue level, an unusual occurrence in a hot market where strong demand often leads to a bump in market prices after the debt has been sold. The loan was being quoted below 99 cents on the dollar. That’s less than the already discounted price of 99.5 cents it was sold at.
  • Banks typically price a loan to enable trading that results in a pop on the debt price after the deal has been allocated. In this case, JPMorgan, which led the deal, seems to have miscalculated demand for the loan that has left some investors flustered.
  • The new loan pays interest of 3.75 percentage points more than lending benchmarks.
  • Frontier has spent the past few years buying up landline telecommunications assets from Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc. to expand its revenue base. Though these deals helped double the size of the company, Frontier has been losing phone and internet subscribers to cable competitors, which has pressured sales and its stock price.
  • Its debt situation and the need for cash forced the company to cut its quarterly common dividend by 62 percent.

(Bloomberg) In T-Mobile-Sprint Talks, All-Stock Option Said to Emerge

  • If a Sprint Corp. merger with T-Mobile US Inc. happens, would-be lenders might be stuck on the sidelines.
  • In early-stage discussions between the two wireless carriers, an all-stock deal that would avoid the need for financing has emerged as a potential option, according to people familiar with the matter. Deutsche Telekom AG, the majority owner of T-Mobile, and SoftBank Group Corp., which holds about 83 percent of Sprint, still haven’t decided if they will even attempt a deal, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private.
  • An all-stock offer would let Deutsche Telekom avoid paying a premium for Sprint while still making a compelling proposal for investors because of the long-term upside from cost savings and competitive advantages.
  • T-Mobile has an enterprise value of more than $80 billion, compared with about $70 billion for Sprint. Such an enormous combination would typically involve billions of dollars in financing, so a stock-for-stock merger might be disappointing for Wall Street banks, which make millions of dollars from lending fees on megadeals.
  • One of the proposals that’s been informally considered would involve Sprint and T-Mobile setting an exchange ratio that would give Deutsche Telekom a slightly higher percentage of the company than SoftBank, the people said. Neither company would own more than 50 percent of the new combination.