Category: Investment Grade Weekly

30 Jan 2026

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads remained range bound this week with The Index just slightly wider through Thursday.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 73 on Thursday January 29th after closing the week prior at 72.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.23% and exhibited almost no change whatsoever throughout the week before closing at 4.23% on Thursday evening.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.24% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.85%.

 

 

Points of Interest

The biggest news of the week came on Friday morning when President Donald Trump said that he intends to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.  Warsh still needs to be confirmed by the Senate but he is widely viewed as a relatively safe pick given his past experience serving on the US Central Bank’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011.  Recall that Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.[i]

The FOMC also met this week and made no changes to its policy rate, as expected.  This pause came after three consecutive meetings where the committee elected to lower rates.  10 of the 12 voting members chose to pause with only 2 dissenters that were in favor of lower rates.

This creates a tough situation for Kevin Warsh and we are not envious of the job that he has in front of him.  On one hand he has a President that has repeatedly called for a policy rate up to 3% lower than its current level (this would be the equivalent of a dozen 25bp rate cuts!). On the other hand, Warsh inherits an economy that has continued to perform and a job market that has experienced slowing growth but has still managed to maintain an unemployment rate that has shown signs of stabilization near historical lows.  With the December dot plot showing a median consensus of just two cuts by the end of 2027 it is hard to envision a scenario where Kevin Warsh will be able to deliver lower rates and appease the President.  In any case, we are hopeful that the Fed continues its time-honored tradition of independence and allows the data to guide its decision-making process.

There is a smattering of economic data next week but the major highlights are JOLTS job data on Wednesday followed by the Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday morning.

Primary Market

The primary market picked up this week as borrowers priced $36.9bln of new debt topping the high end of estimates.  This helped push the monthly total for January to $208bln, making it the 5th busiest month of all-time.  Syndicate desks are looking for another busy week to start the month of February with the average supply estimate coming in at around $40bln.

Flows

Investment grade bond inflows hit a five-year high in the latest week.  According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended January 28, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$5.4bln, the most since the week ended February 3rd, 2021. This was the 9th consecutive week of inflows.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$14.46bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

[1] Bloomberg, January 30 2026, “Trump Picks a Reinvented Warsh to Lead the Federal Reserve”

23 Jan 2026

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads moved tighter this week.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 71 on Thursday January 22nd after closing the week prior at 74.  The Index was 7 bps tighter YTD and stood at its tightest level since 1998 amid a strong technical backdrop for credit.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.22% before moving to 4.25% on Thursday evening.  The benchmark rate was 8bps higher YTD.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +0.26% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.86%.

 

 

Points of Interest

The data this week was supportive of a resilient economy.  GDP and personal consumption were healthy.  Core PCE for the month of November remained above the Fed’s long-term target (2%) but it ticked lower from the month prior with no surprises to the upside.  This is backward looking data but it has led market participants to coalesce around the belief that the economy is poised to perform well in 2026.  The strong economic data has caused prognosticators to carefully consider the Fed’s need to decrease its policy rate in the year ahead.  The median projection derived from the Fed’s December dot plot showed just one cut in 2026 with an additional single cut in 2027.  The market started the year with a hunger for 2+ cuts year but interest rate futures were pricing slightly less than two cuts as of Friday afternoon.  Economic stimulus associated with the recently enacted tax reform as well as the performance of the job market will be the two items that have the biggest impact on the policy rate in 2026 in our view.

There are a handful of economic releases next week but the highlight will be the FOMC on Wednesday.  Fed fund futures are currently predicting almost no chance of a cut/raise and we agree.  The more interesting story could be President Trump revealing his preferred choice for the new Fed Chair.  He has consistently said that the announcement would occur in the month of January.  We would not be surprised if this news were to hit the tape at the conclusion of next Wednesday’s FOMC release.

Primary Market

The primary market was slower this week as earnings season continued to progress with many issuers still prohibited from bringing new deals due to quiet periods.  Through Thursday, $20.4bln in new debt was priced with a regional bank deal pending on Friday that will add $1.75bln to that total.  More than $170bln of new debt has been priced so far in 2026, with much of that total ($90.2bln) coming in the first full week of the year, which ended up as the 4th busiest week of all-time.  The Fed meeting should lead to a front-end loaded calendar in the week ahead.  Dealers are looking for $35bln of new debt next week which would push the monthly total north of $200bln.

Flows

Demand for credit has been strong to start the year.  According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended January 21, short and intermediate investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$3.09bln. This was the 8th consecutive week of inflows dating back to last year.  2026 year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$9.60bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

31 Oct 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads will finish wider this week.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 76 on Thursday October 30th after closing the week prior at 75.  Although this was a very modest move wider the market “feels” a bit heavier as we go to print on Friday.  Investors are busy processing earnings releases as well as a large amount of new issue supply so we would expect the spread on the index to finish the week 1-2 basis points wider than 76.  Spreads are still very much rangebound over the past few months as the OAS on the index has not traded wide of 80 since early August.  Treasury yields moved slightly higher throughout this week.  The 10yr Treasury closed last week at 4.00% and the benchmark rate closed at 4.10% on Thursday evening.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +7.54% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.80%.

 

 

 

News & Economics

It was another week of light economic data as US government data remains impacted by the shutdown.  There were still a few private party releases that occurred this week particularly as it pertains to the housing market.  Mortgage applications rose +7.1% last week indicating that perhaps some buyers/refinancers are starting to come off the sidelines as mortgage rates are closing in on three-year lows.  However, later that morning data showed that pending sales of existing US homes stalled in September after a strong showing in the month of August.

The highlight of the week was Wednesday’s FOMC release.  The Fed cut by 25bps, in line with expectations.  The committee was largely in agreement with just two of the twelve voting members having differing views.  One voting member wanted no cut and one wanted a 50bp cut.  In our view the biggest takeaway from this meeting was Chairman Powell’s press conference as he sought to push back against the idea that a December cut is a forgone conclusion.  Interest rate futures responded in kind as they were pricing a 92.3% chance of a cut on Tuesday evening with that number having been whittled down to a 68.9% chance by Wednesday’s close.

Next week will be another quiet one for government sponsored releases absent a reopening but there will be some datapoints from private providers including MNI Chicago PMI, S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM data.

 

Primary Market

It was shock and awe this week in the primary market as it was the busiest week of 2025 and the sixth highest volume week of all time.  It also capped off the busiest October on record.  $78.9bln of new debt priced this week relative to dealer estimates of just $20bln.  Meta Platforms led the way with a $30bln jumbo deal on Thursday.  Other larger issuers of note were HSBC, Lloyds and Santander.  Dealers are looking for $55bln next week to start the month of November.

 

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended October 29, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.8bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$61.4bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

26 Sep 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads will finish wider this week for the first time in the past four weeks.  The index has traded within a tight 9bp range since mid-July so any move tighter or wider during that time period has been incremental at best.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 75 on Thursday September 25th after closing the week prior at 72.  Treasury yields moved slightly higher throughout the week.  The 10yr Treasury yield closed last week at 4.13% and was 4.18% as we went to print on Friday afternoon.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +6.53% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.86%.

 

 

 

News & Economics

The data this week echoed a familiar refrain: never bet against the U.S. consumer.  Second quarter real GDP was revised up to 3.8% from 3.3% on the back of improved consumer spending.  The PCE index rose 2.7% year-over-year through August while core PCE was 2.9%.  While inflation is not running red hot, it remains very stubborn.  The most surprising release of the week was a 20.5% surge in new home sales for the month of August.  It is worth noting that this data can tend to be extremely volatile and is subject to outsize revisions so there is a widely held belief that this initial release is not entirely accurate.  All told, the data this week was rather hawkish.  There is still a month to go until the next FOMC meeting on October 29th, and although interest rate futures are pricing a 90% chance of a cut, we think it is far from a done deal if the data keeps indicating that the economy is holding up just fine.

Next week brings data releases for construction spending, ISM manufacturing and services and then the payroll report for the month of September on Friday morning.

 

Primary Market

It was a much busier week than expected as $56bln of new investment grade debt was priced this week relative to the estimate of $30bln.  Oracle led the way with an $18bln print and other large issuers of note included Broadcom, Dell and Lowe’s.  Next week, syndicate desks are looking for things to cool off a bit into quarter-end with estimates of about $25bln in new supply.

 

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 17, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.18bln. This marked the 19th straight week of inflows and is the largest such streak since 2021.  Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$47.4bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

19 Sep 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads look as though they will finish the week slightly tighter again.  These have not been big moves tighter the last few weeks but more of an incremental grind lower.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 72 on Thursday September 18th after closing the week prior at 74.  Treasury yields drifted higher throughout the week and are now off their lows across the curve.  The 10yr Treasury yield closed last week at 4.06% and was 4.12% as we went to print mid-morning on Friday.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +7.03% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.76%.

 

 

 

News & Economics

The highlight of the week was the FOMC release and 25bp rate cut, which was essentially baked-in leading up to the meeting.  The updated SEP (dot plot) indicated 50bps of additional easing over the two remaining meetings of the year (no November meeting).  During his press conference, Chairman Powell was neither hawkish nor dovish, in our view, and retained a neutral stance.  He chose his words carefully during the presser, and in our opinion made it clear that the FOMC would not be too aggressive with easier monetary policy with inflation still stubbornly elevated above the Fed’s target and with too many unknowns that have yet to filter their way through the economy with regard to trade policy.

Primary Market

It was a solid week for the primary market as companies priced $34bln of new debt, besting dealer estimates of $30bln.  Next week dealers are looking for another $30bln as the market backdrop remains accommodative for both borrowers and investors.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 17, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.18bln. This marked the 19th straight week of inflows and is the largest such streak since 2021.  Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$47.4bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

 

 

12 Sep 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads inched tighter again this week as they have remained in a relatively tight 5bp range over the course of the past month.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 75 on Thursday September 11th after closing the week prior at 77.  Treasury yields exhibited little change over the past week through Friday morning.  The 10yr Treasury yield was 4.07% as we went to print.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +7.31% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.72%.

 

 

 

News & Economics

Economic highlights this week included PPI and CPI, both of which came within the realm of expectations.  Consumer sentiment data released on Friday morning was softer than expected.  The economic releases this week did little to derail the prevailing market narrative that the Fed will look to deliver a cut next Wednesday.  On Friday morning, interest rate futures were pricing a >100% chance of a 25bp move lower in Fed Funds with a high probability of additional cuts at the October and December meetings.  Next week will also bring economic releases for retail sales, industrial production and housing starts.

Primary Market

The primary market was busy again this week as $38bln was priced through Thursday with up to another $1bln looking to price on Friday.  This figure was lighter than dealer forecasts of $45-$50bln.  Next week syndicate desks are looking for around $30bln of new supply shaded toward Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday FOMC releases are almost always a “no-go” for new supply as issuers prefer to stand down in the wake of the potential rate and spread volatility that can accompany the FOMC post-meeting presser.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 10, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.7bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$45.2bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

05 Sep 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads look poised to finish the week tighter, which is a remarkable feat given the deluge of new issue supply during the period.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 77 on Thursday September 4th after closing the week prior at 79.  Spreads are a smidge tighter on Friday as we go to print in the late afternoon. Treasury yields are set to finish the week meaningfully lower after another weak jobs report to start the Friday trading session.  The 10yr Treasury yield closed last week at 4.23% and it is wrapped around 4.07% on Friday afternoon.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +5.95%.

 

 

 

News & Economics

The big news this week was on Friday morning with the release of the nonfarm payrolls report for the month of August.  The BLS report showed that employers added just 22,000 jobs in August while the street was looking for a gain of 75,000.  This was the fourth consecutive month of less than 100,000 payroll additions.  June payrolls also saw a downward revision which knocked the number for that month into negative territory, making June 2025 the first month of payroll reductions since 2020.  Treasury yields moved lower on the back of the release and interest rate futures began to price more than a 100% chance of a 25bp cut when the FOMC convenes on September 17th.  There is still one big datapoint ahead of the September Fed meeting next Thursday with the release of CPI.  After several consecutive weak job reports accompanied with lower revisions it feels like inflation would need to come in red-hot in order to derail what is likely to be the first decrease in the Fed’s policy rate since December 2024.  Futures are also pricing a high probability of cuts at both the October and December meetings as well (no meeting in November).

 

Primary Market

It was the busiest week of 2025 for the primary market, which is especially impressive considering Monday was a market holiday.  Companies priced more than $67bln of new debt in just three trading days as there was no activity on Friday to make way for the jobs report.  2025’s pace of issuance now just slightly trails 2024 to the tune of -2%.  Next week is expected to be another busy one with syndicate desks looking for companies to issue up to $50bln in new debt.

 

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 3, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.6bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$42.5bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

 

01 Aug 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads finished the week unchanged through Thursday, though the market was 3-4 basis points wider Friday afternoon.  The move wider came in sympathy with sharply lower Treasury yields following a weak payroll report on Friday morning.  The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 76 on Thursday evening. The 10yr Treasury yield was little changed through the first four trading days of the week but was 15bps lower following the jobs report.  The 2yr Treasury was 24bps lower as investors priced a higher probability of a near term cut by the Federal Reserve.  Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +4.24% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.07%.

 

News & Economics

It was a busy week for data as a solid GDP print took the markets by surprise on Wednesday with growth coming in solidly above expectations, however, a closer examination of the numbers showed that most of the headline beat was driven by a reversal in imports and a drawdown in domestic inventories.  The purchase component of GDP painted a picture of waning demand. The Fed followed Wednesday afternoon with no change to its policy rate, as expected.  In his press conference, Chair Powell continued to emphasize that the labor market was in a good enough position that the FOMC could continue to wait-and-see.  With no August meeting on the calendar, the Fed has three major data points to parse following the release of the July labor report this morning: the August jobs report in early September and two inflation reports.  The largest market moving print of the week was nonfarm payrolls this morning and there was no way to spin the release in a positive light.  It was a weak report with July payrolls missing expectations to the downside accompanied by large downward revisions in the June and May numbers.  June was revised to 14k from 147k and May to 19k from 144k.  The unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1%.  Stocks traded sharply lower in the aftermath and Treasury yields followed suit.  As we go to print on Friday afternoon, traders were pricing an 86.1% chance of a cut at the Fed’s September meeting while they were pricing just a 39.8% chance the day prior.

Primary Market

It was another typical week for issuance in the midst of earnings season with just $12.2bln of new supply.  Next week is expected to be much busier now that most companies have reported earnings with primary dealers looking for $25-35bln of new issuance.  YTD new issue volume through week end was $979bln which was +1% ahead of 2024’s pace.  It remains to be seen if the risk-off sentiment that was capturing the market on Friday will dissuade IG-rated companies from borrowing next week.  We tend to think that they will forge ahead given that the move lower in Treasury yields has more than offset the move wider in spreads making all-in borrowing costs lower than they would have been just a few days ago.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended July 30, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.3bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$28.5bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

27 Jun 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads were mostly unchanged this week through Thursday, sitting very near cyclical tights.  Technically, the OAS for the US Corporate Bond Index was 1bp wider on the week through Thursday.  The index has traded in a tight 5bp range of 84-89 since the final trading days of May. The tone is stable Friday morning as we go to print.  The 10yr Treasury yield moved slightly lower throughout the week, from 4.38% last Friday to 4.25% Friday morning.  Through Wednesday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +3.85% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.04%.

 

Economics

It was an interesting week for data.  Housing was mixed as existing home sales came in with a slight beat but new home sales numbers were extremely weak as sticky mortgage rates have done little to incentivize buyers to come off the sidelines and were a headwind for affordability.  GDP was revised down from -0.2% to -0.5%.  Finally on Friday, personal income fell more than expected and spending also declined.  Core PCE came in a tick higher than expected but investors were sanguine on the number as most of the inflation came on the services side making it a classic “better than feared” print.  Taking it all together, there is still not much evidence in the numbers that show that tariffs are having an outsize impact on inflation but there is some evidence of consumers pulling back on spending.  Various Fed commentators lamented during the week (Daly, Waller) that the central bank may indeed need to start cutting its policy rate sooner rather than later.  However, there are still numerous FOMC voting members, including Chair Powell, that prefer a more deliberate approach.

Next week, the big highlight is the employment report for the month of June which will be released a day early on Thursday due to the 4th of July holiday.

Primary Market

This week was busier than most forecasters had predicted as nearly $37bln of new debt was priced, easily besting the estimate of $25bln.  Yankee issuers led the way this week, that is companies that are based in other countries (or foreign governments) that elect to issue $USD in the US corporate market.  Next week is expected to be very light with the 4th of July holiday looming at the end of the week.  Underwriters are looking for just $5-$10bln of new supply.  YTD new issue volume has now crested $890bln which is +3% ahead of 2024’s pace.  Recall that 2024 was the second busiest year ever for the primary market, trailing only the pandemic fueled rush for liquidity that occurred during 2020.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended June 25, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.3bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$18.5bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

20 Jun 2025

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads were unchanged this week through Wednesday, while the capital markets were closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth.  The tone is little changed this Friday morning as we go to print with the US Corporate Bond Index wrapped around a spread (OAS) of 85.  The 10yr Treasury yield moved slightly higher this week as the benchmark went from 4.40% at the end of last week to 4.43% early Friday morning.  Market sentiment is cautious overall given the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.  Through Wednesday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +2.92% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.18%.

 

 

Economics

Retail sales were soft this week, though a large part of that move was driven by a decline in auto-sales.  Still, it points to continuing struggles for the retail industry driven by tariff uncertainty.  The May industrial production report was better than feared as the gauge continued to muddle along with some pockets of strength.  Housing starts and permits data was very soft as total housing starts fell almost 10% in May driven by multifamily.  There are a multitude of headwinds for the housing sector, most especially the high cost to build, elevated cost of capital and stubbornly high mortgage rates.

The highlight of the week was the FOMC meeting where the central bank held rates steady in what was a unanimous decision by all 12 voting members.  There are some diverging views of committee members when looking at the Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot).  The most recent version of the dots, released every three months, showed that the median FOMC member continued to expect 50bps of cuts in 2025.  There were a number of committee members that believed the FOMC should remain on hold all year and that grew from 4 members to 7 members since the last dot plot in March.  We continue to expect 1-2 cuts in 2025 as our base case but 3 or 4 cuts is a distinct possibility if the economy continues to soften.

There are some interesting prints next week including PMI, existing home sales, GDP, durable goods and finally the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Friday morning, core PCE.

Primary Market

Issuance was in line with expectations this week as $18bln of debt priced on Monday & Tuesday.  It was a somewhat disjointed week for the primary calendar with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a market holiday on Thursday.  YTD issuance stands at $853.2bln, slightly ahead of 2024’s pace.  The street is looking for $20-$25bln of issuance next week with most of that activity expected in the front half of the week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended June 18, investment-grade bond funds reported their third consecutive week of inflows at +$929.6m. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$17.23bln.

 

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.