KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of May 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.85%, 9 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 5 basis points to 1.30% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 7 basis points to 1.05%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.61%.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of April 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.94%, 60 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 19 basis points to 1.35% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 18 basis points to 1.12%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.63%.
“This is not the kind of inflation from the 1960s and 70s” (Chicago FED president, Charles Evans 4/11/22). During that event before the Detroit Economic Club, Evans contended that the current spurt in prices is temporary, rather than sustaining and that inflation will revert back to pre-pandemic levels in a year or two (source: MarketWatch 4/13/22). The chart on page three shows the longer period, five to ten year inflation expectations of surveys by the University of Michigan remain subdued at about three percent.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of March 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.34%, 51 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 6 basis points to 1.16% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 8 basis points to 0.94%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 4 basis points to 1.42%.
The saying “Cash is King”, popularized by Volvo CEO Pehr Gylrnhammar during the 1987 market crash, has become a rallying cry during periods of market volatility. The premise seems sound, no volatility in times of market turmoil, instant liquidity to deploy capital when pricing seems reasonable, and we all know having cash on hand for private transactions certainly beats the questions that come with check or credit. But is this always the case?
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of February 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 1.83%, 5 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 16 basis points to 1.22% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 15 basis points to 1.02%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 18 basis points to 1.46%
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of January 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 1.78%, 27 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 14 basis points to 1.06% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 13 basis points to 0.87%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 15 basis points to 1.28%.
Inflation outlooks show near term increases, but significant declines as the economy normalizes, moving beyond the abnormalities generated by the pan-demic. At the end of the 4th quarter the 10-year Treasury closed at 1.51%, an insignificant increase from 1.49% at the end of the 3rd quarter. Looking out over the next year, the chart above shows inflation expectations on a steady downward decline. (source: Bloomberg).
The old joke about economists being created to make weathermen look good has been around for as long as finance and meteorology. To be fair both are very tough professions, trying to predict with a high degree of certainty a force that changes rapidly and affects the lives of many. In an attempt to accomplish that feat, both professions have poured the most significant advancements of theory, science, and technology into their practice, trying as they might to keep the next market correction / rebound or natural weather disaster / beautiful sunny day from being a surprise. As we know all too well, this unfortunately doesn’t always work out, and we are sometimes left on the wrong side of the trade or soaking wet on the golf course.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of December 2021, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 1.51%, 6 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 7 basis points to 0.92% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 6 basis points to 0.74%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 8 basis points to 1.13%.