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03 Nov 2022

October 2022

October 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of October 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 4.05%, 22 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 1 basis point to 1.58% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 2 basis points to 1.37%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.90%.

20 Oct 2022

Q3 – 2022

Q3 – 2022

The recent hotter than expected jobs data sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 600 points on Friday, October 7. That day the 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 3.88% and reached a multiyear high of 4.03% on October 14 (source; Bloomberg 10/18/22). Investors continue to react negatively to strong jobs data that will cause the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive interest rate increases to battle inflation.

05 Oct 2022

September 2022

September 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of September 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.83%, 63 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 19 basis points to 1.59% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.35%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 18 basis points to 1.92%.

05 Sep 2022

August 2022

August 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of August 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.20%, 55 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 4 basis points to 1.40% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.14%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 5 basis points to 1.74%.

05 Aug 2022

July 2022

July 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of July 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.65%, 37 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 11 basis points to 1.44% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 10 basis points to 1.16%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 13 basis points to 1.79%.

25 Jul 2022

Q2 – 2022

Q2 – 2022

So, what drives investor interest in the 30-year auction and longer maturities? They might be measuring the impact of present day Fed rate and monetary actions on future economic activity and inflation. Some strategists see the 2-10 year curve inversion signaling a recession. The 10-year Treasury yields 2.92% while the 2-year Treasury yields 3.14%, today (source: Bloomberg 7/13/22). The curve is inverted the most since August of 2000 (source: ibid).

08 Jul 2022

June 2022

June 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of June 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.02%, 17 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 25 basis points to 1.55% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.26%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 31 basis points to 1.92%.

10 Jun 2022

May 2022

May 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of May 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.85%, 9 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 5 basis points to 1.30% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 7 basis points to 1.05%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.61%.

03 May 2022

April 2022

April 2022

KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of April 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.94%, 60 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 19 basis points to 1.35% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 18 basis points to 1.12%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.63%.

25 Apr 2022

Q1 – 2022

Q1 – 2022

“This is not the kind of inflation from the 1960s and 70s” (Chicago FED president, Charles Evans 4/11/22). During that event before the Detroit Economic Club, Evans contended that the current spurt in prices is temporary, rather than sustaining and that inflation will revert back to pre-pandemic levels in a year or two (source: MarketWatch 4/13/22). The chart on page three shows the longer period, five to ten year inflation expectations of surveys by the University of Michigan remain subdued at about three percent.