Q4 – 2022
“It may be a mild recession. It may not be.” (Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase CEO on a call with reporters as reported in The Wall Street Journal 1/14/23)
19
Jan
2023
Archives: Downloads
11
Jan
2023
Decemeber 2022
Decemeber 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of December 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.88%, 27 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 3 basis points to 1.30% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 3 basis points to 1.09%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 4 basis points to 1.59%.
03
Nov
2022
October 2022
October 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of October 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 4.05%, 22 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 1 basis point to 1.58% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 2 basis points to 1.37%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.90%.
20
Oct
2022
Q3 – 2022
Q3 – 2022
The recent hotter than expected jobs data sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down over 600 points on Friday, October 7. That day the 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 3.88% and reached a multiyear high of 4.03% on October 14 (source; Bloomberg 10/18/22). Investors continue to react negatively to strong jobs data that will cause the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive interest rate increases to battle inflation.
05
Oct
2022
September 2022
September 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of September 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.83%, 63 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 19 basis points to 1.59% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.35%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 18 basis points to 1.92%.
05
Sep
2022
August 2022
August 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of August 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.20%, 55 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 4 basis points to 1.40% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.14%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 5 basis points to 1.74%.
05
Aug
2022
July 2022
July 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of July 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.65%, 37 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 11 basis points to 1.44% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 10 basis points to 1.16%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 13 basis points to 1.79%.
25
Jul
2022
Q2 – 2022
Q2 – 2022
So, what drives investor interest in the 30-year auction and longer maturities? They might be measuring the impact of present day Fed rate and monetary actions on future economic activity and inflation. Some strategists see the 2-10 year curve inversion signaling a recession. The 10-year Treasury yields 2.92% while the 2-year Treasury yields 3.14%, today (source: Bloomberg 7/13/22). The curve is inverted the most since August of 2000 (source: ibid).
08
Jul
2022
June 2022
June 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of June 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 3.02%, 17 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index widened by 25 basis points to 1.55% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 21 basis points to 1.26%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 31 basis points to 1.92%.
10
Jun
2022
May 2022
May 2022
KEY OBSERVATIONS
For the month of May 2022, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.85%, 9 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg US Corporate Index tightened by 5 basis points to 1.30% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 7 basis points to 1.05%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 1.61%.