Insight – Page 3 – Cincinnati Asset Management

13 Jun 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads were slightly tighter this week through Thursday but tensions are high this Friday morning as the market processes recent developments in the Middle East. The US Corporate Bond Index closed last week at 85 and it was at 84 when the market closed this Thursday. The market is generically 1-2 bps wider Friday mid-morning as we go to print and equities were also getting hit in a risk-off move related to Israel and Iran. The 10yr Treasury yield was solidly lower (-15bps) on the week, moving from 4.51% at the end of the last week to 4.36% through Thursday. Rates have moved steadily lower since May 21 when the 10yr closed at 4.60% but the current yield is still very close to the YTD average of 4.41%. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +3.14% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.14%.

Economics

The data was mixed this week but for the most part it continued to show that the U.S. economy has held up well in the face of uncertain trade policy. The Consumer Price Index showed an increase of +0.1% for May and +2.4% year over year. This CPI print was a benign one for inflation indicating that tariffs have not yet had the impact that many expected, although it is still early days. The US Producer Price Index was also a bit softer than some investors had feared showing an increase of +0.1% in May. Finally on Friday, consumer sentiment data showed improvement and inflation expectations also eased. Bottom line, it was a pretty good week for inflation.

Next week brings a busier calendar with most of the action taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday. Retail sales numbers for May will be released on Tuesday as well as data on import prices and industrial production. Housing starts will be released Wednesday morning and then the FOMC rate decision will occur that afternoon. We are firmly in the pause camp for this meeting and expect that the Fed will elect to hold its policy rate steady.

Away from economics, investors will continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East as Israel has carried out airstrikes against some of Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Escalation could be negative for risk assets and it would likely send oil prices higher.

Primary Market

Issuance was just a bit light relative to expectations this week as companies priced $20.5bln of new debt while the street had been looking for $25bln. It wasn’t a terribly exciting week of issuance in our view as it was mostly comprised of less frequent, less attractive issuers with concessions that were not overly appealing. YTD issuance stands at $835.2bln just slightly ahead of 2024’s pace. Next week is expected to be on the quiet side with dealers looking for $15-$20bln of new supply concentrated on Monday and Tuesday. With the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a market holiday for Juneteenth on Thursday, it adds up to a light week.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended June 11, investment-grade bond funds reported another strong week of inflows at +$2.29bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$16.3bln.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

06 Jun 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds are headed for the second consecutive week of gains after eight straight sessions of positive returns, the longest winning streak since August of last year. Yields still hovered near a three-month low and spreads near 300 basis points. The broad rally is spurred partly expectations that Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously expected on weaker-than-expected data.
The gains are also fueled by steady cash intake by US high yield funds. These funds report an inflow of $1.5b for week ended June 4, the sixth successive week of cash inflows for these funds, according LSEG Lipper.
Steady cash inflows into high yield funds, attractive yields and relatively low risk premium as reflected in spreads, inundated the primary market with 13 borrowers selling $13.25b this week, the busiest since week ended May 10, 2024
Strong demand for higher yields is expected to drive supply in the coming weeks.
The broad rally in the US junk bond market spanned across ratings, with the exception of CCCs, the riskiest part of the market
BB yields also hovered near a three-month low and spreads closed at 180 basis points, posting gains for the eighth straight session, also the longest since August
Single B yields were at 7.32% and spreads at 295 pushing returns for eight straight sessions as the week comes to close

US Jobs Report Points to Gradual Moderation in Labor Market

US job growth moderated in May and the prior months were revised lower, indicating employers are cautious about growth prospects as they weigh the Trump administration’s economic policy.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 in downward revisions to the prior two months, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated.
The payrolls figure, which was slightly better than expectations, helps alleviate concerns of a rapid deterioration in labor demand as companies contend with higher costs related to tariffs and prospects of slower economic activity. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause some of the more punitive import duties, including those on China, has helped lift sentiment among businesses as well as consumers.
“Employers have been ‘hoarding labor’ in the face of massive corrosive uncertainty,” Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note. “It costs money to fire workers, and we believe firms have been reluctant to lay off workers until they saw the extent of the Trump tariffs.”
Treasury yields rose, the S&P 500 opened higher and the dollar appreciated as traders trimmed bets the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year.
The labor market report wraps up a week of disappointing economic data that included a further increase in applications for jobless benefits and weaker services activity.
The advance in payrolls reflected strength at service providers, including health care and social assistance as well as leisure and hospitality.
At the same time, industries that are more exposed to tariffs flashed warning signs. Manufacturing payrolls dropped 8,000 last month, the most this year, while employment growth in transportation and warehousing rose slightly after declining in each of the prior two months. Employment at temporary-help agencies fell by the most since October.
The household survey, meanwhile, showed a 254,000 increase in the number of people who went from employed to out of work during the month. That was the biggest rise since the start of 2022.
Another major question for economists and policymakers is the extent to which Trump’s efforts to cut back on government spending will take a toll on employment. The federal government shed 22,000 jobs in May, the most since 2020.
Economists contend that at least half a million US jobs could be on the line as federal spending cuts spread to contractors, universities and others who rely on public funding.
“Cracks in the façade of labor market resilience are now starting to show and the longer the tariff uncertainty and government spending cuts continue the worse the labor market reports are bound to be,” Scott Anderson, chief US economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.
The reports showed the size of the labor force shrank by the most since the end of 2023, helping keep the jobless rate steady even as more people became unemployed.
The participation rate — the share of the population that is working or looking for work — fell to a three-month low of 62.4% in May. The rate for those between the ages of 25 and 54, known as prime-age workers, also declined.
For the Fed, officials have indicated they’re in no rush to cut rates until they get further clarity on the impact the administration’s policies will have on the economy — including the labor market. Research by the New York Fed showed this week that as local companies begin dealing with higher costs from Trump’s trade policy, there were “some signs that the sharp and rapid increase in tariffs affected employment levels and capital investments.”

06 Jun 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly, Weekly Insights Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads were little changed this week. The US Corporate Bond Index closed last week at 88 and it was at the same level when the market closed this Thursday. The 10yr Treasury yield was also nearly unchanged this week through Thursday moving from 4.40% lasts week to 4.39% through Thursday’s close. The benchmark rate had moved up to 4.48% by midday Friday on the back of a “decent” Friday morning payroll report. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +2.53% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.21%.

Economics

There was plenty of economic news this week. JOLTS kicked things off coming in slightly better than expectations. Data showed that job openings increased in April and the March number caught an upward revision. ISM manufacturing missed to the downside for the month of May, remaining in contraction territory. Construction spending posted a big miss to the downside, and was much lower than expected for the month of April. Lousy spring weather could have played a part but so too could tariff related fears, as total construction spending through the April report was down 1.5% relative to the same time period in 2024. ISM services also came in on the low side, and remained in contraction. The price component of ISM release increased however which could be a negative indicator with regard to future inflation readings. Finally on Friday we got some relatively good news for the labor market as the release showed that nonfarm payrolls for the month of May increased by 139k (126k survey) and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. There were some more bearish economists looking for a sub-100k print. This report likely gives the Fed some room to continue to delay its next cut. On the downside the job numbers for the two previous reports were revised to the tune of -95k which takes some shine off of the numbers from March and April. Taking it altogether it would be fair to say that the data this week continued to paint a picture of a slowing economy but one that is declining in a moderate fashion that looks like more of a soft-landing scenario at this juncture.

Across the pond, the ECB elected to cut its policy rate by 25bps. This makes 200bps of cumulative cuts for the European Central Bank since June of 2024. The ECB is now well ahead of the FOMC’s 100bps of cumulative cuts. Commentary from ECB president Lagarde indicated that central bank is near the end of its cutting cycle.

After two weeks of a bevy of economic releases, next week is on the lighter side, but there are a couple of highlights with CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Looking further ahead, the June FOMC rate decision is on Wednesday the 18^th. Barring an unforeseen exogenous shock over the next dozen days it is all but certain that the Fed will elect to hold rates steady at its June meeting.

Primary Market

It was an active week for the IG primary market but total volume of $26.2bln fell short of the $30bln estimate. New issue concessions remained sparingly narrow as most deals in recent weeks have been priced to perfection. Dealers are looking for $25bln in new supply next week with most activity centered on Monday and Tuesday. Year-to-date issuance through this week stood at $814.7bln which was +4% ahead of 2024’s pace.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended June 4, investment-grade bond funds reported their largest inflow of the year, a whopping +$4.11bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$14.02bln.

30 May 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds shrugged off a jump in jobless claims and recurring benefits to rally for a third straight session. Yields and spreads also dropped for the third day to close at 7.46% and 311 basis points, respectively.
Attractive all-in yields and still tight spreads have revived the primary market this month after it slowed to a near halt in April. Two more borrowers — oil and gas company Civitas Resources and Goodyear Tire — sold more than $1.2b on Thursday, taking May’s tally to $31b, the busiest month for supply since September 2024.
Strong risk appetite accompanied by huge demand is expected to bring more supply in the coming weeks.
The broad gains extended across ratings as the markets looked past the Federal appeals court’s decision to allow US tariff policy to continue, temporarily blocking a ruling that threatened to throw out Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.
CCC yields, the riskiest part of the junk bond market, tumbled 37 basis points in three sessions this week to close at 11.06%, a two-week low. Spreads dropped 34 basis points this week to 680. Falling yields and tightening spreads drove gains for three sessions in a row.
BB yields fell 18 basis points in three sessions to 6.24% and spreads tightened 15bps to 187. BBs notched up gains for three successive sessions.
As the week closes, US junk bonds may slow amid cautious sentiment, with equity futures struggling to advance given uncertainty over tariff policies and ahead of more macro data.

30 May 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads moved tighter this week. The US Corporate Bond Index closed last week at 91 and had tightened to 89 as the market closed on Thursday. The 10yr Treasury yield is lower thus far on the week to the tune of 9bps as we go to print. The benchmark rate closed last Friday at 4.51% and it was 4.42% by Thursday’s close. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +2.08% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.25%.

Economics

It was a busy economic calendar this week. Durable goods orders came in weak after previous releases were stronger than expected as firms piled on orders to get ahead of tariffs. Consumer confidence showed a rebound in May after five straight months of declines but it still remains at depressed levels. The latest GDP update for Q1 came in at -0.2% which, although negative, actually exceeded the estimate of -0.3%. Finally, the most anticipated releases came on Friday morning with personal spending data and core PCE. Headline PCE rose just 0.1% in April and the year over year measure moved to 2.1% in April from 2.3% in March. Consumer spending fared okay in April all things considered posting a +0.2% increase led by services. It feels a bit like a broken record to keep stating that it is simply too early to know what impact tariffs will have on inflation and consumer health but that is the reality.

Next week is another busy one that culminates in an employment report on Friday, June 6^th. Looking further ahead, the next FOMC meeting is on June 18^th. Interest rate futures on Friday morning are pricing just a 2.1% chance of a cut at that meeting. For contrast, exactly one month ago, amid a bleaker outlook for global trade, those same futures were pricing a 59% chance of cut at the June meeting. The mood of market participants has certainly changed, but we now wonder if risk assets have retraced too far?

Primary Market

It was a solid if uneventful holiday-shortened week of issuance as companies priced $21.6bln of new debt which was in line with estimates. Volume for the month of May pushed past $152bln, making it the busiest month of May since 2020 when $242bln was borrowed as companies shored up liquidity during the early days of the pandemic. Investor demand was strong this week and concessions were meager. Next week dealers are looking for ~$30bln in new debt.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended May 28, investment-grade bond funds reported an inflow of +$1.73bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$9.91bln.

16 May 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds are headed for their fifth weekly gain on easing trade tensions and signs of a still-resilient economy. The rally was also fueled by bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year after data showed tariffs have had limited impact on inflation so far.
Falling spreads and attractive all-in yields attracted a flood of new debt to the primary market. Eleven borrowers sold more than $11b in just four sessions to make it the busiest week since January. Total supply this month is at $19b.
The Index yield is set to drop for the fifth straight week, the longest streak since September. It declined 26 basis points in four sessions this week to 7.48%. The Index risk premium fell for the sixth consecutive week, the longest streak in 17 months. It closed at 309 after falling 34 basis points so far this week.
The broad gains extended across ratings. CCC yields are on track to drop for the fifth straight week after closing at 11.11% on Thursday. Yields fell 19 basis points in four sessions this week. CCCs are also set to post fifth weekly gains.
BB yields are also poised to fall for the fifth successive week after closing at 6.29% on Thursday, down 18 basis points in four sessions. Spreads tightened for the sixth consecutive week to close at 190 basis points, the longest declining streak in more than four years
Meanwhile, investors flocked to new issues with big orders following light supply after a frozen market in April and three straight weeks of cash inflows into US high yield funds. US high yield funds reported a cash intake of $2.6b for week ended Wednesday, according to LSEG Lipper
More borrowers are expected to take advantage of the broad market rally next week

16 May 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads moved materially tighter this week as investors embraced risk across all markets on the back of subsiding fears surrounding some of the worst outcomes for global trade. The US Corporate Bond Index closed last week at 99 and had tightened to 91 as the market closed on Thursday. The 10yr Treasury yield started the week higher on trade enthusiasm and then traded within a narrow range for most of the week. The benchmark rate closed last Friday at 4.38% and it was 4.43% by Thursday’s close. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +1.53% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.30%.

Economics

There was a bounty of economic data this week. The CPI print for the month of April was relatively benign. Core CPI has risen 2.8% over the past year and at an annualized rate of 2.1% over the past three months, which is an improvement relative to the same time period last year. The FOMC is likely pleased with this print but also cognizant of the fact that it does not fully reflect the rapid change in trade policy. Retail sales were slightly better than expectations for the month of April and March data was revised higher but, again, there was much noise in the data due to tariff impacts and it will take some time to see how much spring spending was pulled forward by consumers in order to get ahead of price increases. Both small business and consumer confidence continued to decline, which could impact labor demand and consumer spending in the future. Finally, housing starts posted a nice bump in April but a deeper dive into the data showed a collapse in building permits suggesting weaker activity in the ensuing months.

Next week is a very light calendar of economic data domestically. Globally, both the UK and Japan will release inflation numbers that could give investors an idea of what those central bank’s will be looking to do with their policy rates.

Primary Market

It was a brisk week for issuance as companies priced $40bln in new debt besting projections of $35bln. Concessions were reasonable and investor demand was solid putting the primary market in a “well balanced” state in our view. To expand a bit on our thoughts, we viewed pricing for most issues this week as favorable against a demand backdrop that was good but not great. It can be difficult to extract value from the primary market when demand investor demand is voracious, as that type of environment can lead to less favorable pricing. Next week is expected to be on the lighter side with syndicate desks looking for $25bln in primary volume.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended May 14, investment-grade bond funds reported an inflow of +$1.86bln. This broke a 7-week streak of trade-turmoil outflows. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$6.649bln.

02 May 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds are headed for their third weekly gain with each ratings cohort participating
US high yield funds attracted $2.5b of inflows for week ended Wednesday, the most since July, wrote JPMorgan citing LSEG data.
US junk bond yields moved 1basis point higher to 7.81% this week with the spread moving 7 basis points wider to 368
CCCs, the riskiest tier of the junk bond market, was the best performer, gaining 0.13%. CCCs are set to post gains for the third consecutive week
BB spreads widened 7 basis points to 239 and yields moving 2 basis points higher to 6.53%. The segment is also on track to record positive returns for the third week in a row.
April was the slowest month for supply since July. However, there was a broad rally across risk assets on Thursday that revived the primary market seeing a combined $2b in new bonds price to kick off the new month

(Bloomberg) US Payroll Gain of 177,000 Shows Uncertainty Yet to Dent Hiring

US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 last month after the prior two months’ advances were revised lower, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.
The report suggests the labor market continues to cool gradually, a sign that businesses facing heightened uncertainty around tariffs and turmoil in financial markets didn’t significantly alter their hiring plans. Most economists anticipate the brunt of the impact from punishing levies will be seen in coming months.
“This is a good jobs report all around. The ‘R’ word that the labor market is demonstrating in this report is resilience, certainly not recession,” Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, said in a note. “For now, we should curb our enthusiasm going forward given the backdrop of trade policies that will likely be a drag on the economy.”
Fed officials have indicated they’re in no rush to cut rates until they get further clarity on the impact the administration’s policies will have on the economy, and are widely expected to leave their benchmark unchanged when they next meet May 6-7 despite a report Wednesday showing inflation decelerated in March.
Payroll gains were broad based, led by an advance in health care. Transportation and warehousing employment rose by the most since December, suggesting a surge in imports and activity boosted demand for labor as businesses rushed to get ahead of tariffs. Manufacturing, meanwhile, shed jobs as the sector saw the steepest contraction in output last month since 2020.
The federal government cut jobs for a third month — the longest such streak since 2022 — reflecting efforts by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to downsize the federal workforce and reduce government spending.
The government leads all US industries in terms of layoffs announced so far in 2025, with the vast majority of the about 282,000 cuts being attributed to DOGE actions, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report Thursday. Economists contend at least half a million US jobs could be on the line as federal spending cuts spread to contractors, universities and others who rely on government funding.
The participation rate — the share of the population that is working or looking for work — ticked up to 62.6% in April. The rate for those between the ages of 25 and 54, known as prime-age workers, rose to the highest level in seven months
Economists are also paying close attention to how labor supply and demand dynamics are impacting wage gains — especially with inflation risks heating up again. The report showed average hourly earnings rose 0.2% last month, marking a deceleration from March. From a year earlier, they rose 3.8%.
Other data are pointing to a more marked deterioration in labor-market conditions. Job openings fell in March to the lowest level since September, and a report on private hiring showed employers added the fewest payrolls in nine months in April.
Economists largely expect layoffs to pick up in the coming months as economic uncertainty puts a halt on expansion plans.

02 May 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads were listless this week, drifting wider through the first four trading days of the period before they snapped tighter Friday on the back of a stronger than expected payroll release for the month of April. The US Corporate Bond Index closed last week at 101 and had moved out to 106 by Thursday. Most bonds are 2-3bps tighter on Friday. The 10yr Treasury was in risk-off mode this week until Friday when the yield gapped higher after strong job numbers. The benchmark rate closed last week at 4.24% and is wrapped around 4.33% as we go to print this Friday afternoon. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +1.90% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.22%.

Economics

Economic data was very mixed this week. Consumer confidence continued to drop and details of that report showed that consumers have an increasingly negative view of the future. However, personal income and spending continue to hold up but it will remain to be seen how much of this spending was pulled forward to get ahead of tariffs. The initial GDP estimate showed that the economy contracted -0.3% during the first quarter but trade had an outsize impact on that number. Finally on Friday, the jobs report was better than expected and while the labor market is showing some signs of deterioration it is not yet in contraction and layoffs have yet to become a widespread issue. Bottom line, it is a very uncertain economic environment and backward-looking data may not be the best indicator of how the economy will behave in the future. The consumer continues to be the straw that stirs the drink so we will be watching income and spending patterns closely as they have historically gone hand in and hand as the keys to the US consumer-driven economy.

Next week the data is on the lighter side but we will hear from the FOMC on Wednesday. Interest rate futures are pricing just a 3.2% chance of a cut as we go to print but investors will be listening closely to Jerome Powell’s press conference. The market is currently pricing the July FOMC meeting as having a relatively high probability (70.8%) for the first cut of 2025.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended April 30, investment-grade bond funds reported their sixth consecutive weekly net outflow, this time at -$2.2bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade funds remained positive at +$4.15bln.

22 Apr 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Quarterly CAM Team 0 comment

2025 Q1 Grado de Inversion Bonos Corporativos

Resumen y perspectivas del primer trimestre
Abril de 2025

El crédito con grado de inversión tuvo un desempeño relativamente bueno en el primer trimestre, sobre todo en comparación con las acciones y demás activos que entrañan mayor riesgo. Los diferenciales se mantuvieron notablemente estables durante los dos primeros meses del año antes de que la volatilidad aumentara durante el mes de marzo. Si bien los diferenciales registraron mayor amplitud al terminar el trimestre, esto se vio compensado con creces por menores rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y menores ingresos por cupones.

Resumen del primer trimestre

Tras comenzar el 2025 con un diferencial de 80, el diferencial ajustado por opciones (OAS) en el índice de bonos corporativos de EE. UU. de Bloomberg ascendió a 94 durante el primer trimestre, es decir, registró un aumento de 14 puntos básicos. El crédito de mayor calidad superó al de menor calidad en medio de una ampliación de los diferenciales. La porción de mayor duración del índice (más de 10 años hasta el vencimiento) superó al segmento de vencimiento intermedio en 11 puntos básicos, debido a la disminución de los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro.

Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro alcanzaron su punto máximo a principios de enero. El bono a 10 años inició el año en 4.57% y luego ascendió brevemente al 4.79% en las primeras dos semanas del periodo, antes de registrar un descenso progresivo y cerrar el trimestre en 4.21%. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a 2, 5 y 10 años terminaron 36, 43 y 36 puntos básicos más abajo, respectivamente, lo cual tuvo un papel importante para lograr retornos positivos del crédito.

El ingreso por cupón contribuyó de manera decisiva para generar retornos durante el trimestre, ya que representó casi la mitad del retorno total del índice corporativo durante el periodo (+1.15% del +2.31% del retorno total se debió al cupón). Este beneficio del cupón guarda relación directa con los rendimientos y los cupones recién emitidos disponibles para los inversores en el mercado primario de grado de inversión. Las ventas de bonos de alto grado en EE. UU. representaron el primer trimestre más activo registrado, ya que las empresas con calificación IG imprimieron más de $531 mil millones de nueva deuda, lo cual superó el total de $529 mil millones de 2024. El promedio de los últimos cinco años fue de $469 mil millones. Como hemos señalado anteriormente, creemos que el mercado primario se encuentra en condiciones óptimas, en las que los inversores y las empresas bien capitalizadas se ven en la obligación de otorgar y solicitar préstamos.

El rendimiento al vencimiento del índice corporativo cerró el trimestre en 5.15% y sigue siendo significativamente elevado comparado con la compensación que estuvo disponible durante la mayor parte de la última década. Esta no fue una oportunidad fugaz, ya que el rendimiento del índice superó el 5% durante la mayoría de los días de negociación desde el cuarto trimestre de 2022, mientras que el promedio de 10 años para esta métrica fue de solo el 3.73%. Creemos que este sigue siendo un punto de entrada atractivo para el crédito IG y que los rendimientos elevados incrementaron la utilidad del grado de inversión como herramienta de diversificación. Además, colocó a la clase de activos en posición de poder generar retornos totales atractivos en los próximos años. Los rendimientos más altos mitigan el riesgo de una caída entre la amplia variedad de posibles resultados motivados por las políticas gubernamentales, la Reserva Federal y la geopolítica.

Aumento de las probabilidades de recesión

Según una encuesta realizada por Bloomberg a economistas, la probabilidad de una recesión durante el próximo año aumentó en el primer trimestre. Durante enero y gran parte de febrero, este indicador se mantuvo en el 20%, pero luego ascendió progresivamente al 30% a finales de marzo. Parte de ese aumento se debió al debilitamiento de los datos económicos, pero un factor importante fue la incertidumbre en torno a la política comercial estadounidense y a cuestiones geopolíticas.
Considerando nuestro argumento sobre los beneficios de la diversificación del crédito IG, en términos generales se observó un buen desempeño durante los periodos de recesión.

En virtud de los datos de la Oficina Nacional de Investigación Económica, examinamos la era más moderna de recesiones que se produjeron a partir de la década de los ochenta. Algunos de estos periodos son muy breves y no necesariamente ofrecen un panorama completo, pero los resultados indican que el crédito IG fue una herramienta poderosa para lograr la diversificación en tiempos de tensión económica.

Política comercial de EE. UU.

Durante el primer trimestre, el espectro de los aranceles dificultó los intentos de los inversores de cuantificar el impacto de los aranceles inminentes sobre la economía estadounidense y el gasto de los consumidores. Creemos que los aranceles tendrán un impacto limitado en nuestra cartera, no solo por las empresas que poseemos, sino también por la naturaleza contractual de los bonos y su posición dentro de la estructura de capital. Si una empresa sufre una pérdida de rentabilidad debido a los aranceles, es posible que tenga que ajustar su política financiera como consecuencia de ello. No existe ningún requisito ni acuerdo exigible para que una empresa pague dividendos o recompre acciones. Si el desempeño financiero se ve lo suficientemente afectado, los retornos discrecionales para los accionistas se convierten en palancas que se pueden utilizar para aumentar la flexibilidad financiera. No existe tal opción para una empresa cuando se trata de gastos de intereses y obligaciones de deuda. Si una empresa incumpliera sus obligaciones de deuda, los tenedores de bonos tomarían el control de los activos de esta.
Analizamos el desempeño intermedio de los bonos y acciones de los fabricantes de automóviles más grandes del mundo que presentan mayor grado de exposición al arancel del 25% que entró en vigencia el 3 de abril. El periodo de desempeño se limitó solo al primer trimestre de 2025, cuando la política comercial dominaba el ciclo de noticias.

Los bonos registraron distintos grados de rendimiento positivo durante el primer trimestre, mientras que el desempeño de las acciones fue dispar. El objetivo de este ejercicio no fue defender la primacía de los bonos sobre las acciones, sino indicar la posible inestabilidad de los precios de las clases de activos más volátiles provocada por la incertidumbre que genera la política comercial. En definitiva, por su propia naturaleza, los bonos tienen una exposición mucho menor al riesgo relacionado con los titulares periodísticos y a las caídas manejables en las ganancias, dado que estos se abonan en primer lugar debido a su prioridad en la estructura de capital. Los aranceles representan un obstáculo para la rentabilidad, pero es poco probable que impidan que una empresa con calificación de grado de inversión pueda afrontar adecuadamente el servicio de su deuda. La comparación anterior podría parecer mucho más favorable para las acciones si los aranceles se revierten en algún momento en el futuro.

Reserva Federal

Fue un trimestre sin sobresaltos para el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC), que celebró reuniones en enero y marzo. El comité decidió mantener estable su tasa de política monetaria en ambas ocasiones. La Reserva Federal publicó un gráfico de puntos actualizado en marzo con algunos cambios marginales respecto de diciembre. La última versión del gráfico indica que, según la mediana de los responsables de las políticas, se mantiene la previsión de dos recortes de la tasa (50 puntos básicos) en 2025. Sin embargo, si se examinan los datos en detalle, se observa que hubo más responsables de las políticas que esperaban que no hubiera recortes o que solo hubiera uno más que en diciembre. Los inversores fueron más moderados que el FOMC y, al final del trimestre, los mercados de futuros de tasas de interés estaban descontando tres recortes (75 puntos básicos) para fines de 2025. Según nuestras previsiones, el resultado más probable será uno o dos recortes en 2025, pero el estado de la economía y del mercado laboral tendrá gran incidencia en el resultado final.
Un tema que hemos tratado en las últimas cartas se refiere a la nueva inclinación de la curva de los bonos del Tesoro a 2 y 10 años. Consideramos que esta inclinación es producto de la reacción de los inversores a los recortes de 100 puntos básicos que aplicó la Reserva Federal en los últimos meses de 2024, así como la anticipación de recortes adicionales en 2025 y años posteriores. Como gestores activos, celebramos que la curva de bonos del Tesoro sea más pronunciada, ya que genera un entorno con más oportunidades.

Para aquellos inversores que tienen grandes asignaciones a inversiones a corto plazo y mercados monetarios, recomendamos una evaluación del riesgo de reinversión. Si los bonos del Tesoro a dos años continúan cayendo debido a los recortes de la Reserva Federal, las inversiones a corto plazo podrían generar ingresos sustancialmente menores que las que se encuentran más alejadas de la curva. Los inversores pueden considerar la posibilidad de reasignar parte de ese capital de corta duración a activos de duración intermedia con mayor potencial de retorno.

Es una maratón

El primer trimestre fue muy activo: el volumen primario récord, la incertidumbre macroeconómica y la variabilidad de los diferenciales dieron lugar a largas jornadas. Dada la evolución de los precios en los primeros días de negociación del segundo trimestre, parece que la volatilidad llegó para quedarse. Continuaremos liderando con nuestro enfoque en la preservación del capital, llevando a cabo nuestras responsabilidades con atención, cuidado y el deseo de complacer a nuestros clientes. La selección de crédito y la capacidad de actuar con agilidad son fundamentales para afrontar con éxito lo que se avecina.
Gracias por su continuo interés. No dude en ponerse en contacto con nosotros para tratar todos los temas correspondientes al crédito.

Esta información solo tiene el propósito de dar a conocer las estrategias de inversión identificadas por Cincinnati Asset Management. Las opiniones y estimaciones ofrecidas están basadas en nuestro criterio y están sujetas a cambios sin previo aviso, al igual que las declaraciones sobre las tendencias del mercado financiero, que dependen de las condiciones actuales del mercado. Este material no tiene como objetivo ser una oferta ni una solicitud para comprar, mantener ni vender instrumentos financieros. El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros. El rendimiento bruto de la tarifa de asesoramiento no refleja la deducción de las tarifas de asesoramiento de inversión. Nuestras tarifas de asesoramiento se comunican en el Formulario ADV Parte 2A. En general, las cuentas administradas mediante programas de firmas de corretaje incluyen tarifas adicionales. Los retornos se calculan mensualmente en dólares estadounidenses e incluyen la reinversión de dividendos e intereses. El Índice no está administrado y no considera las tarifas de la cuenta, los gastos y los costos de transacción. Se muestra con fines comparativos y se basa en información disponible al público tomada de fuentes que se consideran confiables. No se hace ninguna afirmación sobre su precisión o integridad.

La información suministrada en este informe no debe considerarse una recomendación para comprar o vender ningún valor en particular. Los distintos tipos de inversiones implican distintos grados de riesgo y no puede garantizarse que cualquier inversión específica sea adecuada o rentable para la cartera de un cliente. Las inversiones de renta fija tienen distintos grados de riesgo crediticio, riesgo de tasa de interés, riesgo de incumplimiento y riesgo de prepago y extensión. En general, los precios de los bonos suben cuando las tasas de interés bajan y viceversa. Este efecto suele ser más pronunciado en el caso de los valores a largo plazo. No hay garantía de que los valores que se tratan en este documento hayan permanecido o permanecerán en la cartera de una cuenta en el momento en que reciba este informe o que los valores vendidos no se hayan vuelto a comprar. Los valores analizados no representan la cartera completa de una cuenta y, en conjunto, pueden representar solo un pequeño porcentaje de las tenencias de cartera de una cuenta. No debe suponerse que las transacciones de valores o participaciones analizadas fueron rentables o demostrarán serlo, o que las decisiones de inversión que tomemos en el futuro serán rentables o igualarán el rendimiento de la inversión de los valores examinados en este documento. Si se lo solicita, Cincinnati Asset Management proporcionará una lista de todas las recomendaciones de seguridad realizadas durante el último año.

En nuestro sitio web se encuentran disponibles las divulgaciones adicionales sobre los riesgos materiales y los posibles beneficios de invertir en bonos corporativos: https://www.cambonds.com/disclosure-statements/

i Bloomberg First Word, 28 de marzo de 2025, US High-Grade Bond Sales Post Record 1Q; Slower Pace Next Week [Las ventas de bonos de alto grado de EE. UU. registran un récord en el primer trimestre; el ritmo se ralentizará la próxima semana].

ii Bloomberg, 31 de marzo de 2025, United States Recession Probability Forecast [Pronóstico de probabilidad de recesión en Estados Unidos].

iii Oficina Nacional de Investigación Económica, 31 de marzo de 2025, Business Cycle Dating [Datación del ciclo económico]. La NBER define la recesión como “una disminución significativa de la actividad económica que se extiende por toda la economía y dura más de unos pocos meses, considerando factores como el PIB, el empleo, los ingresos, las ventas y la producción industrial”.

iv Para realizar este ejercicio, seleccionamos títulos de renta fija examinando los bonos corporativos emitidos recientemente, cuyos vencimientos estuvieran previstos dentro de los diez años siguientes y que pudieran brindar un rendimiento equivalente al del primer trimestre de 2025. Asimismo, tomamos por válidos los puntajes de liquidez de Bloomberg al seleccionar los bonos más líquidos, suponiendo que todos los demás factores mantienen iguales.

v Reserva Federal, 19 de marzo de 2025, Summary of Economic Projections [Resumen de proyecciones económicas].

vi Bloomberg, 31 de marzo de 2025, World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) [Probabilidad de la tasa de interés mundial (WIRP)].

← Previous 1 234…64 Next →