Insight – Page 2 – Cincinnati Asset Management

19 Sep 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bond yields tumble to a new multi-year low and risk premium drops to a seven-month low driving gains for the seventh consecutive week, the longest winning streak since last September. Yields closed at 6.57%, also falling for the seventh week in a row.
The broad rally extended across ratings in the US junk bond market on renewed bets that easing interest-rate policy by the Federal Reserve will bolster corporate earnings and growth. The gains spanned across all risk assets as equities hit all-time highs. CCC yields, the riskiest tier of the high yield universe, dropped below 10% for the fourth time in three weeks and are near a six-month low at 9.96%. CCCs have risen to the top again with 0.23% returns on Thursday, the best performing asset class in the US high yield market.
The market expectations of at least two more 25 basis points cut this year and one 25 basis point cut each in 2026 and 2027 are in line with Federal Reserve’s dot plot projections driving risk assets across the board
BB yields also plunged to a multi-year low of 5.59% and spreads fell to a more than 10-week low spurring gains for the seventh successive week
Plunging yields, falling risk premium, and a still steady economy against the backdrop of Fed’s easing interest-rate policy, fueled a supply surge as the week is set to close with nearly $12b in new bonds, the busiest since the week ended Aug. 8. Leaving aside the last two weeks of a summer lull, the primary market has seen supply of $9b+ for five straight weeks
Credit remains unshaken, bolstered by persistent technical strength, Barclays strategists Brad Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote on Friday. With the market seemingly rangebound at tight levels, identifying areas of dispersion and catalyst-driven opportunities remains key, they added

(Bloomberg) Fed Cuts Rates by Quarter-Point; Powell Cites Weakness in Jobs

Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point and penciled in two more reductions this year following months of intense pressure from the White House to slash borrowing costs.
Chair Jerome Powell pointed to growing signs of weakness in the labor market to explain why officials decided it was time to cut rates after holding them steady since December amid concerns over tariff-driven inflation.
“Labor demand has softened, and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the break-even rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant,” Powell told reporters. He added, “I can no longer say” the labor market is “very solid.”
Powell also signaled ongoing concern over inflation pressures resulting from tariffs. “Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said.
Looking ahead at the outlook for additional rate moves, Powell was cautious, saying the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation.”
In their post-meeting statement, policymakers acknowledged that inflation has “moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” but also pointed to worries over jobs. Officials said the unemployment rate had “edged up,” and the “downside risks to employment have risen.”
The cut was widely expected amid signs the central bank’s concerns are shifting toward employment and away from inflation, following a sharp slowdown in hiring over the last several months.
Policymakers also updated their economic projections at this meeting and now see two additional quarter-point cuts this year. That’s one more than projected in June. They foresee one quarter-point cut in 2026 and one in 2027.

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

12 Sep 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds are headed for their sixth week of gains, with yields tumbling to a fresh 40-month low of 6.60% and spreads returning to the six-month low of 268 basis points, spurred by expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing. The high yield market notched up gains in three of the last four sessions.
The rally spanned the risk spectrum and gained momentum after jobless-claims data on Thursday reinforced signs of weak labor market and fueled bets that the Fed will cut rates next week. BB yields, the best of the junk bond market, plunged to near a 40-month low of 5.61% and are on track for a sixth week of declines, the longest streak since December 2023. BBs have returned 0.42% returns so far this week, the most in more than two months.
Risk assets traded with strong bias as macro data broadly supported expectations of a Fed cut next week, Barclays strategists Brad Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote in a note published Thursday
While technicals remain supportive, valuations are increasingly asymmetric, and the risk of spread widening into 4Q is rising, the wrote
CCC yields, the riskiest segment of the high yield market, fell below 10%. Spreads tightened 10 basis points on Thursday, the most in two weeks, to 613 basis points
Single B yields also fell to a fresh 40-month low of 6.53% and spreads closed at 261 basis points prompting gains for the sixth straight week
Attractive yields, tight spreads, strong demand and expectations of easing interest rates spurred a supply surge in the primary market
Twelve borrowers sold nearly $9.5b this week so far and this will be the third consecutive week of more than $9b in supply
September volume stands at $19b

12 Sep 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads inched tighter again this week as they have remained in a relatively tight 5bp range over the course of the past month. The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 75 on Thursday September 11^th after closing the week prior at 77. Treasury yields exhibited little change over the past week through Friday morning. The 10yr Treasury yield was 4.07% as we went to print. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +7.31% while the yield to maturity for the index was 4.72%.

News & Economics

Economic highlights this week included PPI and CPI, both of which came within the realm of expectations. Consumer sentiment data released on Friday morning was softer than expected. The economic releases this week did little to derail the prevailing market narrative that the Fed will look to deliver a cut next Wednesday. On Friday morning, interest rate futures were pricing a >100% chance of a 25bp move lower in Fed Funds with a high probability of additional cuts at the October and December meetings. Next week will also bring economic releases for retail sales, industrial production and housing starts.

Primary Market

The primary market was busy again this week as $38bln was priced through Thursday with up to another $1bln looking to price on Friday. This figure was lighter than dealer forecasts of $45-$50bln. Next week syndicate desks are looking for around $30bln of new supply shaded toward Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday FOMC releases are almost always a “no-go” for new supply as issuers prefer to stand down in the wake of the potential rate and spread volatility that can accompany the FOMC post-meeting presser.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 10, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.7bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$45.2bln.

05 Sep 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads look poised to finish the week tighter, which is a remarkable feat given the deluge of new issue supply during the period. The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 77 on Thursday September 4^th after closing the week prior at 79. Spreads are a smidge tighter on Friday as we go to print in the late afternoon. Treasury yields are set to finish the week meaningfully lower after another weak jobs report to start the Friday trading session. The 10yr Treasury yield closed last week at 4.23% and it is wrapped around 4.07% on Friday afternoon. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +5.95%.

News & Economics

The big news this week was on Friday morning with the release of the nonfarm payrolls report for the month of August. The BLS report showed that employers added just 22,000 jobs in August while the street was looking for a gain of 75,000. This was the fourth consecutive month of less than 100,000 payroll additions. June payrolls also saw a downward revision which knocked the number for that month into negative territory, making June 2025 the first month of payroll reductions since 2020. Treasury yields moved lower on the back of the release and interest rate futures began to price more than a 100% chance of a 25bp cut when the FOMC convenes on September 17^th. There is still one big datapoint ahead of the September Fed meeting next Thursday with the release of CPI. After several consecutive weak job reports accompanied with lower revisions it feels like inflation would need to come in red-hot in order to derail what is likely to be the first decrease in the Fed’s policy rate since December 2024. Futures are also pricing a high probability of cuts at both the October and December meetings as well (no meeting in November).

Primary Market

It was the busiest week of 2025 for the primary market, which is especially impressive considering Monday was a market holiday. Companies priced more than $67bln of new debt in just three trading days as there was no activity on Friday to make way for the jobs report. 2025’s pace of issuance now just slightly trails 2024 to the tune of -2%. Next week is expected to be another busy one with syndicate desks looking for companies to issue up to $50bln in new debt.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended September 3, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$2.6bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$42.5bln.

05 Sep 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds have recovered from a rocky start to be on course to post gains for the fifth consecutive week. Yields remain within sight of a 40-month low after dropping eight basis points on Thursday to close at 6.74%. The risk premium fell five basis points to 275, just seven basis points higher than the six-month low of 268.
The rally spanned across ratings, driving a boom in supply after a busy summer. The primary market priced almost $10b in just three sessions this week, including nearly $5b on Wednesday, the busiest day in three months. The wave of new bond sales continued on Thursday, with the market pricing more than $3b in a reflection of strong demand and robust risk appetite amid expectations of Fed interest-rate cuts.
The rally gained momentum as equities hit an all-time high. Junk bonds also climbed as the markets fully priced in a rate cut this month after fresh data reinforced the broad consensus that the labor market is cooling. The latest readings show hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record as intended job cuts mounted amid economic uncertainty. Hiring by US companies was less than forecast, in line with other data showing weak labor demand
The advance in the US high-yield market was powered by CCCs, the riskiest assets. CCCs are set for a fifth week of positive returns
BBs are also poised to record gains for a fifth week as yields linger close to a three-year low.
Market bets for a rate cut improved after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier in the week that the central bank should begin lowering rates this month and make “multiple cuts in the coming months.”

(Bloomberg) Weak US Payroll Gain of 22,000 Cements Case for Fed Rate Cut

US job growth cooled notably last month while the unemployment rate rose to the highest since 2021, fanning concerns the labor market may be on the cusp of a more significant deterioration.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. Revisions showed employment shrank in June — the first payrolls decline since 2020. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%.
Traders solidified bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 meeting, which Chair Jerome Powell signaled in a speech last month during the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Stock futures and Treasuries rallied following the report.
The figures will likely heighten concerns about the durability of the labor market after the prior month’s report showed a shockingly cooler hiring picture than previously thought. Job gains have moderated materially in recent months, openings have declined and wage gains have eased, all of which are weighing on broader economic activity.
Several sectors, including information, financial activities, manufacturing, federal government and business services, posted outright declines in August. Job growth was concentrated in health care and leisure and hospitality.
While July payrolls were revised slightly higher, the jobs picture looked even worse in June. The adjustments follow the sizable downward revisions seen in the last jobs report, which were the largest since 2020.
Accounting for the revisions in this report, employment growth in the last three months has averaged just 29,000. Payrolls have come in under 100,000 for four straight months, extending the weakest stretch of job growth since the pandemic.

22 Aug 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

The US junk bond rally hit a pause as yields crossed the 7% mark to close at a three-week high of 7.04%, after rising for four sessions, the longest streak since early April. Spreads closed at a two-week high of 287 basis points after climbing eight basis points in the last four sessions. Rising yields and steadily widening spreads drove losses for the third consecutive session and the biggest one-day loss in three weeks.

The rally lost steam after the minutes of the last Fed meeting showed that most policy makers were concerned about inflation risks in the coming months. Momentum faded further ahead of Chair Powell’s speech at the gathering of central bank officials in Jackson Hole later Friday.
Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Chris G Collins expect Powell to acknowledge labor market weakness, while also maintaining that demand and supply have offset each other as reflected in the low unemployment rate
While data showed the labor market weakening, the solid factory purchasing managers index dampened hopes of a rate cut in September. Traders trimmed their bets for a rate cut in September. The probability of a rate cut in the next meeting dropped to about 71% from 100% a few days ago.
A bevy of Fed officials continue to say inflation risks outweigh their concerns about weaker employment
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said while some recent inflation readings have come in better than expected, he hopes one “dangerous” data point is just a blip, referring to the data showing services inflation shooting up
The decline extended across the market. BB yields are up six basis points for the week and closed at a two-week high.
CCCs extended their modest loss for the fourth session in a row. Yields rose 27 basis points in four sessions to a nearly five-week high of 10.78%, and spreads to a three-week high of 670 basis points. Spreads widened for the sixth consecutive session, the longest streak since April

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies identified by Cincinnati Asset Management. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. Fixed income securities may be sensitive to prevailing interest rates. When rates rise the value generally declines. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

15 Aug 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bond rally momentum faded, halting a three-day winning streak, after inflation data made a September rate cut slightly less of a sure thing. US wholesale inflation rose the most in three years, suggesting that higher input costs, as reflected in the producer price index, could show up in corporate earnings later this year.
The US high yield market broke the run of gains across ratings. Yields climbed five basis points from a more than three-year low to 6.95%, driving the biggest one-day loss in nearly two weeks. The rally stalled across risk assets as equities hit a wall and traders scaled bets on rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting.
BB yields rose four basis points to 5.88% on Thursday driving a modest loss of 0.09% ending the three-day gaining streak
CCC yields rose eight basis points from the more than four-month low of 10.39% to close at 10.47%
While the markets paused after driving yields down to a more than three-year low, the sentiment overall appeared resilient as traders overlooked higher-than-expected inflation prints, Barclays strategists Brad Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote on Friday
With spreads not far from multi-decade tights, credit selection is critical, Barclays wrote
The primary market paused for a breather after a flurry of issuance in the first three sessions of the week, pricing $650m on Thursday
The torrid pace of bond sales drove the week’s supply to over $9b taking the August tally to a little more than $25b, the busiest since August 2021
US junk bond supply is expected to enter the summer lull phase as the week winds down

01 Aug 2025

High Yield Weekly, Insight Rich Balestra - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM High Yield Weekly Insights

(Bloomberg) High Yield Market Highlights

US junk bonds gained for a third straight month in July, the longest gaining streak since September, on signs of broad economic resilience and strong corporate earnings.
The rally was propelled by CCCs, the riskiest tier of the high-yield market. CCCs bonds delivered 1.47% return in July, the best reading across the whole of the US fixed income.
Junk bond yields closed little changed at 7.08%. Spreads dropped 12 basis points to 278, tightening for a third month in a row
BB yields dropped to 5.99% in July. Spreads closed at 169 basis points, falling for a third consecutive month
Markets continued to climb, with equities at all-time highs and spreads near historic lows, as earnings exceeded expectations and macro data was yet to show real weakness, Barclays strategists Brad Rogoff and Dominique Toublan wrote in note this morning
Rising consumer confidence, robust corporate earnings and higher-than-expected GDP boosted risk assets and drew borrowers into the market
More than $35b deals were priced in July, the second-busiest month since September 2021

01 Aug 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Weekly Josh Adams - Portfolio Manager 0 comment

CAM Investment Grade Weekly Insights

Credit spreads finished the week unchanged through Thursday, though the market was 3-4 basis points wider Friday afternoon. The move wider came in sympathy with sharply lower Treasury yields following a weak payroll report on Friday morning. The OAS on the Corporate Index closed at 76 on Thursday evening. The 10yr Treasury yield was little changed through the first four trading days of the week but was 15bps lower following the jobs report. The 2yr Treasury was 24bps lower as investors priced a higher probability of a near term cut by the Federal Reserve. Through Thursday, the Corporate Bond Index year-to-date total return was +4.24% while the yield to maturity for the Index closed the day at 5.07%.

News & Economics

It was a busy week for data as a solid GDP print took the markets by surprise on Wednesday with growth coming in solidly above expectations, however, a closer examination of the numbers showed that most of the headline beat was driven by a reversal in imports and a drawdown in domestic inventories. The purchase component of GDP painted a picture of waning demand. The Fed followed Wednesday afternoon with no change to its policy rate, as expected. In his press conference, Chair Powell continued to emphasize that the labor market was in a good enough position that the FOMC could continue to wait-and-see. With no August meeting on the calendar, the Fed has three major data points to parse following the release of the July labor report this morning: the August jobs report in early September and two inflation reports. The largest market moving print of the week was nonfarm payrolls this morning and there was no way to spin the release in a positive light. It was a weak report with July payrolls missing expectations to the downside accompanied by large downward revisions in the June and May numbers. June was revised to 14k from 147k and May to 19k from 144k. The unemployment rate also ticked higher to 4.2% from 4.1%. Stocks traded sharply lower in the aftermath and Treasury yields followed suit. As we go to print on Friday afternoon, traders were pricing an 86.1% chance of a cut at the Fed’s September meeting while they were pricing just a 39.8% chance the day prior.

Primary Market

It was another typical week for issuance in the midst of earnings season with just $12.2bln of new supply. Next week is expected to be much busier now that most companies have reported earnings with primary dealers looking for $25-35bln of new issuance. YTD new issue volume through week end was $979bln which was +1% ahead of 2024’s pace. It remains to be seen if the risk-off sentiment that was capturing the market on Friday will dissuade IG-rated companies from borrowing next week. We tend to think that they will forge ahead given that the move lower in Treasury yields has more than offset the move wider in spreads making all-in borrowing costs lower than they would have been just a few days ago.

Flows

According to LSEG Lipper, for the week ended July 30, investment-grade bond funds reported a net inflow of +$1.3bln. Total year-to-date flows into investment grade were +$28.5bln.

29 Jul 2025

Insight, Investment Grade Quarterly CAM Team 0 comment

2025 Q2 GRADO DE INVERSIÓN

Resumen y perspectivas del segundo trimestre
de julio de 2025

El crédito con grado de inversión tuvo otro sólido trimestre de rendimiento durante el segundo período. Los diferenciales de crédito fueron volátiles durante abril antes de ajustarse aún más en mayo y durante todo junio.

Resumen del segundo trimestre

El segundo trimestre fue agitado para los activos de riesgo, ya que el anuncio arancelario del “Día de la Liberación” tuvo lugar al comienzo del período, el 2 de abril. El paquete arancelario entró en vigor solo unos días después, antes de que se anunciara una pausa de 90 días el 9 de abril, con una excepción para China. Las acciones globales se desplomaron y los diferenciales de crédito se ampliaron antes de que ambos se recuperaran gradualmente hacia el final del trimestre. Durante el segundo trimestre, el diferencial ajustado por opciones (OAS) del índice de bonos corporativos de EE. UU. de Bloomberg se redujo en 11 puntos básicos, situándose en 83 después de comenzar el trimestre con un diferencial de 94. El diferencial del índice llegó a ampliarse hasta 119 a principios de abril, pero el crédito con grado de inversión (IG) mostró un comportamiento mucho más estable que la mayoría de las demás clases de activos en términos de volatilidad. Sorprendentemente, incluso con el estancamiento económico derivado de la política comercial de EE. UU., los bonos con calificación BAA superaron levemente el rendimiento de los bonos de mayor calidad con calificación AAA y AA durante los primeros seis meses del año. Los vencimientos intermedios superaron significativamente a los vencimientos de mayor duración en dicho período. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a corto plazo disminuyeron a lo largo del año, pero el rendimiento del bono a 30 años se mantuvo elevado.

En lo que va del año hasta el cierre del trimestre, los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a 2, 5 y 10 años habían disminuido en 52, 58 y 34 puntos básicos, respectivamente. Mientras tanto, el rendimiento del bono a 30 años superó el 5 % en varias ocasiones a fines de mayo, antes de retroceder en junio y cerrar el mes en 4.77 %. Hasta el final del segundo trimestre, el rendimiento del bono a 30 años se encontraba a menos de un punto básico de donde comenzó en 2025. Una posible explicación de por qué los rendimientos intermedios han disminuido mientras que el de 30 años se mantuvo estancado es que el mercado de bonos del Tesoro a largo plazo está influenciado en mayor medida por las perspectivas de política fiscal y monetaria, así como por las expectativas de inflación.

Con los diferenciales de crédito dentro de los promedios históricos, los ingresos por cupones siguieron siendo un impulsor importante de los rendimientos de los inversores durante los primeros seis meses del año. Hasta el 30 de junio, el ingreso por cupones representó un 2.32 % del rendimiento total del índice corporativo en lo que va del año, mientras que la apreciación de precios representó un 1.81 % y otros factores contribuyeron con un 0.04 %.

Considerando conjuntamente los diferenciales de crédito y los rendimientos del Tesoro, el rendimiento hasta el peor escenario del índice corporativo cerró el trimestre en un 5 %, frente a un promedio de 3.78 % en los últimos 10 años. Los diferenciales de crédito cerraron el trimestre con un diferencial del índice de 83, comparado con el promedio de 119 de los últimos 10 años. Si bien los diferenciales de crédito parecen algo ajustados, consideramos que este es un entorno clásico de “comprar por el rendimiento, no por el diferencial” para los inversionistas, y seguimos creyendo que el crédito con grado de inversión ofrece una atractiva relación riesgo‐recompensa en función de su calidad crediticia y duración.

El poder de la diversificación

La volatilidad del segundo trimestre ofreció un excelente ejemplo de la utilidad del crédito con grado de inversión como elemento diversificador en la asignación de activos. La diversificación no se trata necesariamente de aumentar los rendimientos, sino más bien de reducir el riesgo y maximizar el potencial de crecimiento a lo largo de un horizonte temporal más amplio. Una medida de protección a la baja es la “caída máxima”, que se define como el rendimiento calculado según el porcentaje de disminución en el valor desde un pico anterior hasta el siguiente mínimo. Analizamos los rendimientos diarios acumulados en lo que va del año para diversas clases de activos durante los primeros seis meses de 2025.

Ha habido un retroceso en todas las clases de activos mencionadas anteriormente, pero cuando el ciclo de noticias alcanzó su punto más crítico y los temores de los inversores estaban en su punto máximo, el impacto sobre el crédito con grado de inversión fue relativamente limitado en comparación con los activos de mayor riesgo. Aún está por verse si este retroceso ha sido excesivo, ya que es posible que el impacto de la política comercial de EE. UU. en la economía global aún no se haya manifestado por completo. Históricamente, los bonos corporativos con grado de inversión han generado rendimientos con caídas máximas limitadas, al tiempo que ofrecen una rentabilidad ajustada por riesgo favorable en períodos de incertidumbre.

El FOMC se mantiene estable (por ahora)

El Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) se reunió dos veces durante el segundo trimestre, en mayo y junio, y en ambas ocasiones decidió mantener sin cambios la tasa de interés de política monetaria, continuando con la misma postura adoptada en las cuatro reuniones celebradas en lo que va de 2025. Aún quedan cuatro reuniones programadas para este año: el 30 de julio, el 17 de septiembre, el 29 de octubre y el 10 de diciembre. Aunque el consenso entre los inversores es que no habrá un recorte de tasas en la reunión de julio, el presidente Powell evitó descartar por completo esa posibilidad durante una reunión de bancos centrales celebrada en Portugal el 1 de julio. El 3 de julio, los datos de empleo no agrícola de junio superaron ampliamente las expectativas y la tasa de desempleo se redujo, lo que probablemente cerró la puerta a un posible recorte en julio. En cambio, los inversores comenzaron a alinearse con la expectativa de que el primer recorte del año ocurra en la reunión de septiembre, con los contratos de futuros sobre los fondos federales estimando una probabilidad del 92.3 % de un recorte al cierre del trimestre. Sin embargo, dicha probabilidad cayó al 68.1 % el 3 de julio tras la publicación del informe de empleo.

Al cierre del segundo trimestre, los futuros reflejaban un total acumulado de –67 puntos básicos en recortes para lo que resta de 2025. Por su parte, el FOMC adoptó una postura ligeramente más restrictiva en la publicación más reciente del Resumen de Proyecciones Económicas (gráfico de puntos) del 18 de junio. Según dicho gráfico, el miembro promedio del FOMC proyecta recortes por un total de –50 puntos básicos en 2025, con un recorte adicional de –25 puntos básicos en 2026. Sin embargo, los inversores se mostraban notablemente más inclinados hacia una postura expansiva y proyectaban recortes por –135 puntos básicos hasta finales de 2026. Esto equivale a 5.4 recortes de 25 puntos básicos, frente a los 3 recortes de 25 puntos básicos previstos en la mediana de las proyecciones del FOMC.

Seguimos esperando entre 1 y 2 recortes de tasas en 2025. El mercado laboral ha mostrado una desaceleración gradual desde hace algún tiempo, pero aún no presenta señales de deterioro severo. Si eso ocurriera, sería probable que el FOMC actuara con rapidez y aplicara múltiples recortes para estabilizar la economía.

El sentimiento puede cambiar rápidamente

Con posibles recortes de tasas en el horizonte, la oportunidad de invertir con rendimientos elevados podría ser efímera. Al observar lo ocurrido en abril, fue sorprendente la rapidez con la que los mercados bursátiles cambiaron de rumbo. La volatilidad podría volver a aumentar en ausencia de una serie de acuerdos comerciales. Los conflictos geopolíticos continúan ocupando un lugar central, especialmente en Europa y Medio Oriente. Seguiremos posicionando el portafolio de manera conservadora, con preferencia por activos crediticios estables que puedan generar flujo de efectivo en tiempos económicos inciertos. Gracias por la confianza que ha depositado en nosotros.

Esta información solo tiene el propósito de dar a conocer las estrategias de inversión identificadas por Cincinnati Asset Management. Las opiniones y estimaciones ofrecidas están basadas en nuestro criterio y están sujetas a cambios sin previo aviso, al igual que las declaraciones sobre las tendencias del mercado financiero, que dependen de las condiciones actuales del mercado. Este material no tiene como objetivo ser una oferta ni una solicitud para comprar, mantener ni vender instrumentos financieros. El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros. El rendimiento bruto de la tarifa de asesoramiento no refleja la deducción de las tarifas de asesoramiento de inversión. Nuestras tarifas de asesoramiento se comunican en el Formulario ADV Parte 2A. En general, las cuentas administradas mediante programas de firmas de corretaje incluyen tarifas adicionales. Los retornos se calculan mensualmente en dólares estadounidenses e incluyen la reinversión de dividendos e intereses. El Índice no está administrado y no considera las tarifas de la cuenta, los gastos y los costos de transacción. Los rendimientos de los índices y los datos relacionados, como los rendimientos y los diferenciales, se presentan con fines comparativos y se basan en información generalmente disponible al público, proveniente de fuentes que se consideran confiables. No se hace ninguna afirmación sobre su precisión o integridad.

La información suministrada en este informe no debe considerarse una recomendación para comprar o vender ningún valor en particular. Los distintos tipos de inversiones implican distintos grados de riesgo y no puede garantizarse que cualquier inversión específica sea adecuada o rentable para la cartera de un cliente. Las inversiones de renta fija tienen distintos grados de riesgo crediticio, riesgo de tasa de interés, riesgo de incumplimiento y riesgo de prepago y extensión. En general, los precios de los bonos suben cuando las tasas de interés bajan y viceversa. Este efecto suele ser más pronunciado en el caso de los valores a largo plazo. No hay garantía de que los valores que se tratan en este documento hayan permanecido o permanecerán en la cartera de una cuenta en el momento en que reciba este informe o que los valores vendidos no se hayan vuelto a comprar. Los valores analizados no representan la cartera completa de una cuenta y, en conjunto, pueden representar solo un pequeño porcentaje de las tenencias de cartera de una cuenta. No debe suponerse que las transacciones de valores o participaciones analizadas fueron rentables o demostrarán serlo, o que las decisiones de inversión que tomemos en el futuro serán rentables o igualarán el rendimiento de la inversión de los valores examinados en este documento. Si se lo solicita, Cincinnati Asset Management proporcionará una lista de todas las recomendaciones de valores realizadas durante el último año.

En nuestro sitio web se encuentran disponibles las divulgaciones adicionales sobre los riesgos materiales y los posibles beneficios de invertir en bonos corporativos: https://www.cambonds.com/disclosure‐statements/.

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