Key Observations
For the month of September 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 1.67%, 17 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 5 basis points to 1.15% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 3 basis points to 0.89%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 7 basis points to 1.47%.
Key Observations
For the month of August 2019, the yield on the 5-year US Treasury Note ended at 1.39%, 44 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Index widened by 22 basis points to 3.93% over Treasuries. The BB Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 3 basis points to 2.21%. The B Rated Corporate Credit Spreads widened by 32 basis points to 4.05%. The CCC Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 100 basis points to 9.74%.
Key Observations
For the month of July 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.02%, 1 basis point higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 7 basis points to 1.08% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 6 basis points to 0.82%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 8 basis points to 1.38%
Rising uncertainty and muted inflation “strengthens the case for a somewhat more accommodative stance of policy.” Officials “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as reported in The Wall Street Journal 7/16/19.
What a difference a year and even 6-months makes. For the past two years, Investors were fleeing the bond markets as forecasting rising Treasury Bond yields portended red ink. Just last October the 10-year Treasury Bond yielded 3.24% at its peak (source: Macrotrends 10-year Treasury historical chart 7/17/19).
Key Observations
For the month of June 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.01%, 12 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 13 basis points to 1.15% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 12 basis points to 0.88%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 16 basis points to 1.46%
Key Observations
For the month of May 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.13%, 37 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index widened by 17 basis points to 1.28% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread increased by 15 basis points to 1.00%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads widened by 21 basis points to 1.62%.
Key Observations
For the month of April 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.50%, 9 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 8 basis points to 1.11% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 6 basis points to 0.85%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 12 basis points to 1.41%.
The outlook for interest rates has steadily evolved over the first quarter. Now the Fed is unanimous in their outlook with all members voting to maintain the current level of interest rates (source: Federal Reserve board press release 3/20/19) . Furthermore, the minutes infer that the members have an aversion to increasing interest rates further, because of the increasing risks to the U.S. economy from slowing global growth and lower inflation, that surprised Fed officials.
Key Observations
For the month of March 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.41%, 31 basis points lower from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 4 basis points to 1.19% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 2 basis points to 0.91%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 6 basis points to 1.53%.
Key Observations
For the month of February 2019, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note ended at 2.72%, 9 basis points higher from the previous month. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index tightened by 5 basis points to 1.23% over Treasuries. The A Rated Corporate Credit Spread decreased by 3 basis points to 0.93%. The BBB Rated Corporate Credit Spreads tightened by 11 basis points to 1.59%.