Q1 – 2025

Market Review and Outlook
The U.S. Corporate Bond market found itself at a pivotal moment at the end of Q1 2025, given a unique combination of
geopolitical and policy-related developments. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the probability of a recession over the course of the next year rose during the first quarter. Throughout January and most of February this indicator was at 20% but then it rose steadily to 30% by the end of March (source: Bloomberg 3/31/25).