Download Category: 2025

Market Review and Outlook
On January 8, 2026 the Atlanta Federal Reserve bank surprised the global financial community by effectively doubling its GDP “nowcast” for the fourth Quarter of 2025. The estimate leaped from a 2.7% rate to a decades record high of 5.4% (source: atlantafed.org 1/8/26). With the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data still unavailable due to the federal shutdown this past fall, The Atlanta FED’s data assumes a primary factor for investors and policymakers. Note that this “nowcast” updates the model each time additional and more current data is included, so it is more dynamic and subject to revision than a forecast.

In accordance with Jamie Dimon’s remarks in the JP Morgan Chase third quarter earnings press release, economists see decent economic growth but weaker employment prospects. The Wall Street Journal recently completed their quarterly survey of economists with 64 total responses. The survey results show that participants expect the third-quarter inflation-adjusted GDP to increase 2.5% on an annualized basis. However, they expect just over a 49,000 average monthly payrolls increase for the next 12 months. That is the lowest forecast in over two years (Source: Wall Street Journal
10/15/25).

Market Review and Outlook
Consumer prices (CPI) rose 2.7% in June, a bit faster than the 2.4% annual increase in May and in line with economists’ forecasts (source: Wall Street Journal 7/16/25). Core prices which exclude volatile food and energy prices rose 2.9% in line with expectations (source: ibid). The chart above shows the 10-year history of CPI, which has fallen considerably since its 2022 highs.

Market Review and Outlook
The U.S. Corporate Bond market found itself at a pivotal moment at the end of Q1 2025, given a unique combination of
geopolitical and policy-related developments. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the probability of a recession over the course of the next year rose during the first quarter. Throughout January and most of February this indicator was at 20% but then it rose steadily to 30% by the end of March (source: Bloomberg 3/31/25).