Market Review and Outlook
Consumer prices (CPI) rose 2.7% in June, a bit faster than the 2.4% annual increase in May and in line with economists’ forecasts (source: Wall Street Journal 7/16/25). Core prices which exclude volatile food and energy prices rose 2.9% in line with expectations (source: ibid). The chart above shows the 10-year history of CPI, which has fallen considerably since its 2022 highs.
Market Review and Outlook
The U.S. Corporate Bond market found itself at a pivotal moment at the end of Q1 2025, given a unique combination of
geopolitical and policy-related developments. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the probability of a recession over the course of the next year rose during the first quarter. Throughout January and most of February this indicator was at 20% but then it rose steadily to 30% by the end of March (source: Bloomberg 3/31/25).