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What a difference a few months makes. As noted in previous letters many at the Federal Reserve and private sector economists believed the trend to lower inflation to the FED’s 2% target would be bumpy. That has certainly been the case of late.

In our previous letter in January we noted that the trend to lower inflation and interest rates will be bumpy as it usually is. The consensus then pointed toward lower yields ahead driven by perceptions of a slowing economy both here in the U.S. and abroad.