“We’re in a place where we can be patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve” Federal Reserve chairman, Powell 1/11/19 regarding future interest rate increases
These comments made by the Fed chairman exemplify the changed position of the Fed. Given the moderating growth of the global economy and some U.S. economic measures, the Fed is signaling that they can now be patient about further increases in interest rates.
Interest rates moved higher in the third quarter, and fixed income investors with long- term investment horizons might say, “It’s about time.” Why? (1) Bond interest delivers an important, ongoing income stream, (2) is important for wealth preservation, and (3) can be a significant element of fixed income returns.
The economy picked up momentum over the second quarter as the impact of the Trump tax cuts and regulatory relief took effect.
A changing sentiment is enveloping the bond markets, spooking investors. The 10- year Treasury began 2018 at 2.40%, below its 2017 March high of 2.63% (source: Bloomberg). This year its yield moved as high as 2.95% on 2/21/18, but finished the quarter at 2.74%.